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Early Daytona 500 Predictions & Odds 2025: Favorites, Long Shots to Win NASCAR Opener

Isaiah Sirois

Last Updated: February 10, 2025 1:45 PM EST • 3 min 21 sec read.

Our early Daytona 500 predictions.
Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch during the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas via Imagn Images

The Super Bowl is over, but before you get carried away about having your Sunday's free: NASCAR is back. The 67th running of the 2025 Daytona 500 will open the NASCAR season Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET (FOX).

We're getting the most extensive entry list in 10 years, with nine open drivers joining the sport’s regular full-time cast of 36 charter entries. Former champions Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson, reigning Xfinity Series champion Justin Allgaier, and four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves will be racing at one of NASCAR's most storied speedways.

Our early Daytona 500 predictions highlight a favorite, contender, and a long shot, with Kyle Busch our front-runner choice by the early Daytona 500 odds.

Daytona 500 predictions

  • Daytona 500 favorite pick: Kyle Busch (+1400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Daytona 500 contender pick: Noah Gragson (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Daytona 500 longshot pick: Zane Smith (+8000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Our new player props odds tool can help you find the best odds on contender you wish to back!

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Daytona 500 odds

Here are the Daytona 500 odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race.

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Kyle Busch+1100+1100+1400+1000+1200
Kyle Larson+1100+1400+1600+1400+1400
Denny Hamlin+1100+1200+1500+1500+1400
Ryan Blaney+1200+1300+1200+1300+1200
Joey Logano+1200+1300+1200+1200+1200
Brad Keselowski+1400+1300+1200+1200+1200
Todd Gilliland+1600+3200+4000+2000+2000
Chase Elliott+1700+1600+3000+3300+1400
William Byron+1800+1800+1800+2000+1400
Ryan Preece+2000+2800+3500+4500+1200

Daytona 500 odds analysis

  • Most sites have no drivers listed at odds shorter than 11/1 (8.3% implied probability); before last weekend’s clash, race winner Chase Elliott was 3/1 (25%).
  • Last year's Daytona 500 winner, William Byron, is 18/1 (5.3%) at most of our best sports betting apps.
  • Denny Hamlin is the winningest active driver at Daytona with three. Most books list him close to the top of the odds board at 15/1 (6.3%) or shorter.
  • Helio Castroneves, who will make his Cup Series debut at the Daytona 500, is at the bottom of the board at 65/1 (1.5%) or longer.
  • Kyle Busch, the active driver with the most Daytona 500 starts without a win, is a favorite at odds of 14/1 (6.7%) or shorter.

Early NASCAR picks to win Daytona 500 

Daytona 500 favorite pick: Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +1400 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 6.67%

In 1998, Dale Earnhardt won his first and only Daytona 500 in his 20th attempt. In 2025, Busch will attempt his 20th Daytona 500 with a chance to win his first.

Busch is one of the favorites for this year’s Great American Race, and for good reasons. He nearly won at this track last summer and has a whopping seven career top-threes in points-paying races at the track, including a win in the 2008 summer race. 

Lock this one in before qualifying: There’s a long history of the biggest story at Daytona winning the pole for the event - shortening their odds in the process. BetMGM offers the most competitive price of our best sports betting sites, and a winning $10 wager will profit $140. 

Daytona 500 contender pick: Noah Gragson ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +5000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.96%

Gragson’s move to Front Row Motorsports could easily be lost in the shuffle amidst such a busy offseason.

Now might be a good time to remember that this team won pole for five of six superspeedway events last year. He couldn’t pull that off for last year’s Daytona 500, but he still started in second.

Gragson doesn’t have a great resume on superspeedways in the Cup Series, but he has won both here and at Talladega in the Xfinity Series. With Fords having led over half the laps on superspeedways since 2022, Gragson is likelier to win this race than the odds suggest.

A winning bet at these +5000 odds would profit $500. 

Daytona 500 longshot pick: Zane Smith ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +8000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 1.23%

The disrespect the books show to the two new Front Row Motorsports drivers is unreal. Like Gragson, Smith switched to this team in the offseason to little fanfare. But forgetting about this team, especially on superspeedways, can be costly.

Smith is no stranger to Victory Lane at Daytona. He won back-to-back Truck Series races (with Front Row, no less) in 2022 and 2023. In three Cup Series starts at this track, Smith somehow has three 13th-place finishes to his name - that’s a lucky sign, right?

Caesars offers the best price of our best sportsbooks, and a winning $10 bet will yield an $800 profit. 

Daytona 500 FAQs

Who is the favorite to win the Daytona 500?

Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano are among the betting favorites to win the Daytona 500.

When is the Daytona 500?

The 2025 Daytona 500 will take place on Sunday, Feb. 16 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Where is the Daytona 500?

Since 1959, the Daytona 500 has been run at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla. 

Who won the Daytona 500 last year?

William Byron won the 2024 Daytona 500 in the No. 24 Chevrolet operated by Hendrick Motorsports.

Here are our best sports betting sites:

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Written By:
Isaiah Sirois
Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at Sportsbook Review specializing in basketball, motorsports, and football. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you can always find his columns stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA, Olympic, and FIBA markets for Sportsbook Review and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar most weekends. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and is currently attending Vanderbilt Law School.