Dodgers vs. Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Can Dodgers End World Series in Game 4?
If the New York Yankees are going to win the World Series, they'll have to do what only one team in MLB history has accomplished, and that feat came against the Bronx Bombers themselves. With the Los Angeles Dodgers owning a commanding 3-0 series lead, it appears they've all but locked up their eighth title.
It's officially win or go home (or in the Yankees' case, go to Cancun) time for New York following Monday's defeat in Game 3.
The Dodgers are massive World Series odds favorites with four chances to win just one more game, and they can take all the drama out of this series with a sweep on Tuesday.
Serving as the Yankees' last hope on the mound when first pitch is thrown at 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX) from Yankee Stadium will be MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender Luis Gil, whose stuff is as electric as it is wild. Can he lock in and provide the Yankees with some length, or will it be another short start after Clarke Schmidt managed to go only 2 2/3 on Monday?
For the Dodgers, all signs point to a bullpen game as we outlined in our World Series odds and betting lines, which is likely why we're seeing the Yankees trading as fairly significant favorites to prolong this series.
Is tonight the night the Yankees begin their march toward history, will it be just a consolation win amid an inevitable series defeat, or will New York simply get swept aside in embarrassing fashion?
Dodgers vs. Yankees predictions: Game 4
- Moneyline pick: Yankees (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Luis Gil Over 3.5 strikeouts (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Judge prop bet: Over 1.5 bases (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Shohei Ohtani prop bet: Over 1.5 strikeouts (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Dodgers vs. Yankees?
First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium
Yankees to win ⭐⭐⭐
With their backs against the wall, the Yankees will need all hands on deck if they're going to avoid the sweep on Tuesday night.
History - of both the long, storied MLB variety and more recently for the Yankees - doesn't favor New York mounting an epic comeback.
Remember when the World Series MVP odds leaderboard featured the likes of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton at relatively short odds among the top five favorites during the ALCS? Those days are long gone, as Freddie Freeman is the runaway favorite and Judge is trading at +5000 - odds associated with not even a 2% implied probability.
However, I am backing the Yankees to win at least one game in this series before it potentially shifts back to Los Angeles (they'd need to win two for that to happen, though).
This bet is based mostly on following sharp money. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with the Dodgers priced at +120 and the Yankees at -130 on the moneyline. The Yankees are now trading at -145 while the Dodgers are at +133.
That odds movement is likely the result of most bettors expecting the Dodgers to roll with a bullpen game.
Los Angeles is 2-1 in bullpen games during this postseason, but those three contests - in addition to the 11 1/3 innings Dodgers relievers have racked up in this series - mean those arms they'll turn to are likely wearing down.
Meanwhile, Gil was fine in his lone start this postseason, limiting the Cleveland Guardians to two runs over four innings in an 8-6 Yankees win.
Let's follow the money and hope the Yankees can win at least one game in the World Series.
Best odds: -142 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.68%
See the rest of our MLB picks.
My Dodgers vs. Yankees best bet
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Prediction: Luis Gil Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%
My analysis
I don't think Gil will go especially deep in this game, but this is an extremely low total that we've successfully attacked a few times throughout the playoffs.
In that four-inning appearance in the ALCS, Gil managed three strikeouts against the Guardians, who were one of the most disciplined teams at the plate this season. They owned the fifth-best strikeout rate as a team. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were just outside the top third with the 11th-best rate.
As for Gil, he's projected for just less than five strikeouts on Tuesday. When we run that projection against these -128 odds, we're getting better than 27% positive expected value on this bet.
This is also a bit of a rogue price, as BetMGM has Gil's Over at -150 and bet365 is at -155. Those odds are much more in line with Pinnacle's -156 price, which makes this a four-star pick at these -128 odds.
Aaron Judge prop bet
Prediction: Over 1.5 bases ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%
Terms and conditions apply.
My analysis
This is a bet both on price and also on the idea that surely Judge has to do something productive during this series.
The probable AL MVP is hitting just 1-for-12 in the World Series, and he struck out again on Monday, taking his total to seven through three games.
However, there are a couple of reasons for optimism ahead of Game 4. After a first-inning strikeout, Judge looked more locked in with a lineout in the fourth inning. He then drew his first walk of the series in the eighth.
I don't have much faith in Judge to truly right the ship, so I wouldn't touch his home run prop, but I do think he can string together two singles or hit one in the gap for extra bases on Tuesday.
A winning $10 wager would result in $11 in profit.
Shohei Ohtani prop bet
Prediction: Over 1.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +190 via bet365 | Implied probability: 34.48%
Terms and conditions apply.
My analysis
Judge has received plenty of criticism for his World Series performance through three games, but Shohei Ohtani has been nearly as bad.
Additionally, Ohtani is now dealing with a shoulder injury, and he appeared to be flailing at the plate a bit during Game 3.
Ohtani really struggled during the NLDS as the San Diego Padres attacked him with velocity, which happens to be Gil's biggest weapon.
I don't think these +190 odds or the 35% implied probability associated with them properly capture the state of Ohtani right now. After a single strikeout in each game thus far, we could see him take the walk of shame to the dugout multiple times on Tuesday.
I might not wager a full unit on this one, as even a successful $5 bet would result in $9.50 in profit. But for those feeling more bold, you'll win nearly two units on a $10 wager.
Dodgers vs. Yankees odds
Dodgers vs. Yankees live odds: Game 4
Game 4 opening odds
Odds via BetMGM
- Moneyline: Dodgers +110 | Yankees -130
- Run line: Dodgers +1.5 (-200) | Yankees -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Game 4 odds movement
This game's moneyline odds have moved dramatically since opening on Monday night following Game 3.
Los Angeles was +110 across all of our best sports betting sites but is now as long as +125 to win Game 4 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Yankees are as short as -150 after opening at -130.
We're seeing similar movement on the run line, as the Dodgers are as long as -155 to cover 1.5 runs after opening as short as -200.
Though it's yet to be confirmed, this is likely the result of the expectation that the Dodgers will go with a bullpen game on Tuesday.
Latest World Series odds
- Dodgers: -2000 via DraftKings
- Yankees: +1100 via DraftKings
World Series Game 4 game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 29
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
- Weather: 61 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SSE
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Yankees (-143 via BetMGM)
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