MLB MVP Long-Shot Predictions & Odds: Altuve, Skenes Can Make Noise
The start of spring training is behind us, which means we're one step closer to the 2025 MLB regular season.
The AL and NL MVP favorites - Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, respectively - are trading at 3/1 odds or shorter, so there's not much value in betting on them at this stage. Fret not, there are plenty of options on the market, and our MLB MVP long-shot predictions attempt to find potential risers before the beginning of the year.
We'll identify one player in each league who we believe is being overlooked or undervalued by our best sports betting sites.
MLB MVP odds
The MLB MVP odds market is relatively cut and dry heading into the upcoming season. Judge and Ohtani have had a firm grip on this award in the 2020s.
The Yankees slugger has won two of the last three in the American League. The player who stopped a potential three-peat from Judge is Ohtani, who won the AL MVP twice with the Los Angeles Angels. Now, after capturing the NL equivalent in his first year with the Dodgers, the unicorn has won three MVPs in four years.
These trends should explain why their odds to repeat are so high. Our Sean Tomlinson breaks down Judge's fiercest AL MVP competition and Andrew Brennan analyzes Ohtani's NL MVP odds.
Here is the full list of odds at our best sports betting apps:
📊 AL MVP odds
📊 NL MVP odds
🎯 Our MLB MVP long-shot predictions
⭐️ AL MVP long-shot pick: Jose Altuve (+10000 at FanDuel)
Players over the age of 35 have won an MLB MVP award just nine times, and Barry Bonds accounted for four of those instances. Altuve turns 35 in May, and while he's not been thought of as the main centerpiece in Houston's core for some time now, I believe that will change in 2025.
There is a widespread belief that the Astros' reign of dominance in the American League has come to an end after they moved on from Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. However, Altuve's shown no signs of regression. Houston is likely to be in the mix as long as the one-time MVP is in the lineup.
He and MLB MVP odds contender Yordan Alvarez will take on increased roles in Joe Espada's young squad, inevitably leading to more attention.
One of the black marks against Altuve over the past few seasons is his lack of RBIs, typical of a leadoff hitter. Will Espada move the future Hall of Famer from the first spot in the order without Bregman and Tucker directly behind him? If so, his RBI numbers could soar to 2016-17 levels.
It's asking a lot of the aging star to return to his MVP form from nearly a decade ago. As long as his batting average hangs around .300, his RBI tally increases, and the Astros remain contenders, Altuve should have a better chance than the 0.99% implied probability that his odds indicate.
🔥 NL MVP long-shot pick: Paul Skenes (+6600 at BetMGM)
Excluding the aforementioned Ohtani, who is one of one in the modern era, only two pitchers have won an MVP since the turn of the century: Justin Verlander (2011) and Clayton Kershaw (2014). So, it's no surprise that Skenes is a long shot to win the award.
It's far too early to involve Skenes in conversations with those generational talents, but the Pittsburgh ace has enough in his arsenal to challenge for the award. He's already set a high bar for himself as the reigning Rookie of the Year odds winner and a Cy Young challenger in his debut campaign - are his sights now set on the MVP?
On the plus side, if there's a young pitcher capable of winning the award, it's Skenes.
He's got the notoriety, nasty stuff, and numbers to complement an MVP campaign. He tallied an 11-3 record in 23 starts, finished with a sub-2.00 ERA, and got the starting nod for the National League in the All-Star Game.
Skenes' strikeout numbers were also otherworldly. He sat down 170 batters in 133 innings pitched, accounting for 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. For context, the best K/9 tally in MLB history (minimum 1,000 IP) belongs to Blake Snell (11.2). If he continues to fan opponents at this rate, he can cement a strong case for MVP in the years to come.
However, the uniform he wears will be a hindrance, especially with Pittsburgh's inactivity in the offseason. Players need to post undeniably special seasons for people to overlook bad teams - see Trout, Mike. The Pirates' win total is currently set at O/U 76.5 at BetMGM, so in other words, Skenes is already facing a Mount Everest-sized battle, never mind an uphill one.
Yet, as one of the league's most electric arms, the second-year player is worth a look at +6600. A $10 bet would pay out $660 in profits should Skenes become the first pitcher in 11 years to win National League MVP.
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❓ MLB MVP FAQs
Who are the MLB MVP favorites?
Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani is the favorite in the National League at +200, carrying an implied probability of 33.33%. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is the front-runner in the American League while getting +300 odds, translating to an implied probability of 25%.
Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his third MVP award and first in the National League during 2024.
In the American League, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won for the second time.
When will the MLB MVP Awards be decided?
The winners of the 2024 MLB MVP Awards were announced on Thursday, Nov. 21. We expect a similar timeframe for the announcement of the 2025 awards.
When is Opening Day?
Opening Day is on March 27, which is among the many MLB key dates for the 2025 season.
🏟️ MLB betting odds pages
⚾️ Best MLB betting sites
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