MLB Projected Win Totals & Over/Under Wins Predictions 2025: How Far Can Guerrero Take Blue Jays?
Baseball season is rapidly approaching, and Opening Day will be here before we know it.
With most of the offseason action complete, we have a better idea of what each team will look like and can offer our best MLB win totals predictions.
I target only Overs in this market because, well, it's no fun actively rooting against a team for 162 games. This at least gives you something to look forward to each day, and there's still a ton of value in betting on Overs here.
We looked through the MLB win totals odds and found six strong predictions based on the odds at our best MLB betting sites, with three from each league to give you that perfect balance we all desire.
American League win totals 2025
(AL win total odds via FanDuel as of Feb. 11)
AL East win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees (94-68) | 93.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Orioles (91-71) | 88.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Red Sox (81-81) | 85.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Rays (80-82) | 80.5 (-105)/(-115) |
| Blue Jays (74-88) | 78.5 (-122)/(+100) |
AL Central win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guardians (92-69) | 83.5 (-122)/(+100) |
| Royals (86-76) | 82.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Tigers (86-76) | 83.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Twins (82-80) | 83.5 (-118)/(-104) |
| White Sox (41-121) | 52.5 (-124)/(+102) |
AL West win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Astros (88-73) | 86.5 (+102)/(-124) |
| Mariners (85-77) | 84.5 (-122)/(+100) |
| Rangers (78-84) | 85.5 (-105)/(-115) |
| Athletics (69-93) | 70.5 (-102)/(-120) |
| Angels (63-99) | 72.5 (+102)/(-124) |
American League win total predictions
Toronto Blue Jays wins prediction: Over 78.5 wins
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Terms and conditions apply.
I used a combination of the regular-season wins projections at FanGraphs and PECOTA to make these predictions. Based on those numbers, this profiles as perhaps my favorite pick of the bunch.
Our best sports betting sites are severely undervaluing the Blue Jays in this market while setting a win total of just 78.5.
They won 74 games in 2024 despite Bo Bichette being one of the most useless players in baseball, which surely won't be the case again this season (even if he's marginally better, that's a huge boost). Additionally, the Jays trotted out what was essentially a minor-league lineup plus Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the majority of the latter stages of the season.
Now they've added Anthony Santander (3.3 fWAR in 2024) and Andres Gimenez (2.8 fWAR) to the team. They're expected to provide the offense with a significant boost of power and speed.
Based on that, FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to finish with 82 wins, while PECOTA is slotting them third in the AL East with 85.7. If the Jays manage to finish even .500 - which would fall below both of those projections - we'll still cash the Over on this pick.
I'm very willing to bet on a bounce-back campaign from Toronto.
Chicago White Sox wins predictions: Over 51.5 wins
Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%
Terms and conditions apply.
The Chicago White Sox can't possibly be as bad as they were last year, right? Well, that's pretty much what this win total suggests.
Sure, 52 wins would be 11 more than what Chicago managed in 2024, but it's still nine fewer than the Colorado Rockies put up with the second-worst record in the majors.
Don't get me wrong. The White Sox are still expected to be the worst team in baseball, but this is just such a low total. We see that based on their win projects of 63 (FanGraphs) and 61.5 (PECOTA).
All the White Sox need to accomplish to go Over this total and cash our Over is lose fewer than 110 games. That shouldn't be hard, as only 22 teams have lost that many games since 1900.
Deciding which of our best sports betting apps is the best option to place this bet at depends on how confident you are in the White Sox. This is the lowest total of the bunch, but the Over is also juiced to -130.
Caesars offers Over 53 at -110, while BetMGM is featuring Over 52.5 at -125. I wouldn't consider the latter, as I'll just pay the extra five cents of juice to get an additional win for my prediction. However, Caesars' number is tempting, but I'll opt for a safer total based on how bad this team remains.
Texas Rangers wins predictions: Over 85.5 wins
Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%
Both projection models expect the Texas Rangers to bounce back in a significant way from their disappointing 78-84 campaign, which followed the team's World Series win in 2023. In fact, they're widely expected to win the AL West this year.
The Rangers didn't make a ton of offseason moves, though the additions of Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will provide the lineup with plenty of pop. This is more about the Rangers being far healthier in 2025.
Sure, some of these players are injury prone, but let's look at some of the time missed from several of Texas' more important contributors last year:
- Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle made only three starts each
- Corey Seager missed 39 games and Wyatt Langford sat out 28
- Josh Jung and Evan Carter managed to play only 46 and 45 games, respectively
Meanwhile, Adolis Garcia was worth an absurd minus-0.2 fWAR after putting together a 4.6 fWAR campaign the year prior. I expect him to play much better in 2025.
It all adds up to many more wins than the Rangers totaled last year, as long as the injury bug doesn't decimate them again.
National League win totals 2025
(NL win total odds via FanDuel as of Feb. 11)
NL East win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phillies (95-67) | 91.5 (-108)/(-114) |
| Braves (89-73) | 93.5 (-115)/(-105) |
| Mets (89-73) | 92.5 (-106)/(-114) |
| Nationals (71-91) | 70.5 (-120)/(-102) |
| Marlins (62-100) | 63.5 (+100)/(-122) |
NL Central win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brewers (93-69) | 82.5 (-112)/(-110) |
| Cardinals (83-79) | 75.5 (-128)/(+104) |
| Cubs (83-79) | 87.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Reds (77-85) | 78.5 (-115)/(-105) |
| Pirates (76-86) | 76.5 (+100)/(-124) |
NL West win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers (98-64) | 104.5 (-120)/(-102) |
| Padres (93-69) | 89.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Diamondbacks (89-73) | 85.5 (-110)/ (-110) |
| Giants (80-82) | 79.5 (-105)/(-118) |
| Rockies (61-101) | 59.5 (-102)/(-120) |
National League win total predictions
Miami Marlins wins predictions: Over 63.5 wins
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%
This profiles as one of the trickier picks we're offering, as the Miami Marlins' projection varies across our two sources.
FanGraphs is forecasting them for a 71-91 season, a nine-win improvement from 2024. However, PECOTA sits at a nearly identical 62.3 wins. Therefore, I'm going to add a bit more of my own analysis for this prediction.
First and foremost, 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara will return after missing all of the 2024 campaign.
Additionally, I really liked what I saw from Xavier Edwards last year. He stole 31 bases and accrued 2.2 fWAR in just 70 games, and now Edwards is set to serve as the Marlins' leadoff man this year. Otto Lopez was also a very effective player last season, forming a strong middle-infield pairing with Edwards.
Also, I know we're on Year 3 or 4 of "the Jesus Sanchez breakout is coming," but I really do think he'll finally break out. His batted-ball data was elite last year, and his numbers in July to October were much better than what he strung together during the first half of the campaign.
However, that brings us to the risky portion of this pick.
If the Sanchez breakout comes, or if really anyone plays especially well, the Marlins could trade them prior to the deadline and proceed to trot out the stinkiest lineup known to mankind for the second half of the season. Let's just bank on them winning enough games before they do that, because this is still a very low bar to clear.
St. Louis Cardinals wins predictions: Over 75.5 wins
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
Caesars is a 21+ product
This is up there with the Blue Jays as my favorite pick of the bunch.
It's not that I think the Cardinals are especially good, but they continue to play in a division that lacks an outright star-studded team. The schedule is more balanced than it used to be, but that still plays a role, and the team really isn't that bad.
Even if the Cards trade Nolan Arenado as the rumors suggest they will, there's still a ton of talent in their lineup.
Masyn Winn was fantastic during his rookie campaign, and Brendan Donovan is a very productive and versatile player who accrued 3.2 fWAR in 2024. Also, Ivan Herrera looks like a potential star catcher in the making (and gets the benefit of being teammates with Willson Contreras), and Sonny Gray has been one of MLB's most consistent starters for the last six years.
Similar to the Blue Jays' total, this feels like a strangely low bar to clear for an organization that's failed to go Over 75.5 wins only once since the turn of the millennium.
Arizona Diamondbacks wins predictions: Over 85.5 wins
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
With everyone so focused on the Los Angeles Dodgers - for good reason, to be fair, as we noted in our World Series predictions - we're seeing some value on the Over for another team in the NL West.
It's not even just the Dodgers, as the San Diego Padres are trading at a total nearly five games higher than this one on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 89-win Diamondbacks last year lost first baseman Christian Walker, but they replaced him with Josh Naylor, who isn't quite as good but is still a quality player.
Additionally, they added Corbin Burnes to an already strong rotation, and the baseball world is expecting a massive bounce back from Corbin Carroll, who put up a first half to forget last year. He looked much more like the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year in the second half (.212/.301/.334 slash line with five home runs in the first half vs. .258/.351/.568 with 17 long balls in the second).
Arizona's win projections are sitting right around this number, but this team has overperformed expectations for two straight years after being the worst club in baseball as recently as 2021. The D-Backs will continue to shock everyone and finish with upward of 90 victories this season.
MLB win totals FAQs
What team is the favorite to win the most games?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the most games, as they're the only team with a projected win total over 100 games.
What team is predicted to win the fewest games?
The Chicago White Sox are predicted to win the fewest games in the majors for the second straight year.
When does the MLB season start?
The first MLB regular-season games will be played during a special Tokyo Series on March 18 and 19, but Opening Day is March 27.
When does the MLB season end?
The 2025 MLB regular season concludes on Sept. 28.
Who won the most games in 2024?
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the most games in 2024 with 98.
How is an MLB win total bet decided?
An MLB win total bet is decided based on the number of wins a team finishes with at the conclusion of the regular season. The postseason isn't included in the total.
MLB betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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