WM Phoenix Open Picks to Win: Outright Golf Bets for TPC Scottsdale
We're hunting for the PGA Tour's outright winner this week with our 2025 WM Phoenix Open picks to win at TPC Scottsdale. Tee times begin at 9:20 a.m. ET this morning and the tournament will run up until kickoff on Super Bowl Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler - a two-time champion of this event - is the consensus betting favorite this week by the WM Phoenix Open odds. However, I'll be steering clear of his prohibitive +333 odds, which represent an implied win probability of 23.09% in this 132-man field.
Nick Taylor won last year's WM Phoenix Open with pre-tournament odds of +12500. That goes to show that there's value to be found at the People's Open.
WM Phoenix Open picks to win
See all of our golf picks for the WM Phoenix Open and upcoming events.
- Hideki Matsuyama to win the WM Phoenix Open (+1600 via bet365)
- Tom Kim to win the WM Phoenix Open (+4000 via FanDuel)
- Max Greyserman to win the WM Phoenix Open (+6600 via BetRivers)
You can find the best and latest odds for all your WM Phoenix Open picks via our player prop odds tool.
WM Phoenix Open betting action
John Ewing of BetMGM reports that Scheffler (+275) is the most bet golfer to win the WM Phoenix Open at the sportsbook. Scheffler has drawn 31% of the betting handle as the favorite to win.
WM Phoenix Open outright picks
Hideki Matsuyama
Best odds: +1600 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 5.88%
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Matsuyama won this event in 2016 and 2017. He already has a win this PGA Tour season, in which he set the score-to-par record in Hawaii.
The former Masters champion has played here every year since 2014 with three other top-10 finishes to accompany his two victories. He's routinely among the tournament's top players in strokes gained: approach each year, and he's second on the PGA Tour by that metric across his past 12 rounds.
Matsuyama struggled to a T-48 finish last week with uncharacteristically poor play off the tee and on approach. We're getting a reasonable boost in his odds to win this week as a result.
Tom Kim
Best odds: +4000 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 2.44%
Kim finished T-7 in last week's Signature Event at Pebble Beach and was briefly atop the leaderboard on Sunday. I was most impressed by his 1.00 strokes gained: putting per round as success on the greens will be a key to victory at TPC Scottsdale.
Kim played this event each of the past two years. He improved on a T-50 in his debut to finish T-17 in his second go-around.
The star of last week's TGL event has the flair and confidence necessary to win amid the raucous environment of the People's Open. He's seemingly a fan favorite in any event and his confidence should be bolstered following a rough 2024 campaign.
Max Greyserman
Best odds: +6600 via BetRivers | Implied win probability: 1.49%
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Greyserman enters this week at No. 34 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) even after withdrawing last week due to a hand injury. He had back-to-back runner-up finishes prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs last summer, and he tied for seventh in the American Express a few weeks ago.
The 29-year-old makes his professional debut at TPC Scottsdale this week, but I like him as a course fit based on his current form with his irons, putter, and length off the tee. Just keep an eye on any injury news but we're getting inflated odds for his talent amid the concern.
WM Phoenix Open expert picks & predictions
- WM Phoenix Open first-round leader picks
- WM Phoenix Open sleepers and long shots
- WM Phoenix Open power rankings
- WM Phoenix Open picks to win
- WM Phoenix Open odds
WM Phoenix Open odds
Here are the latest WM Phoenix Open odds in real time showing the best odds from our best golf betting sites.
WM Phoenix Open betting history
Here are the last 10 outright winners of the WM Phoenix Open and their betting odds prior to Round 1:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Nick Taylor | -21 (Playoff) | +12500 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -19 | +1200 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -16 | +2500 |
| 2021 | Brooks Koepka | -19 | +4000 |
| 2020 | Webb Simpson | -17 (Playoff) | +1400 |
| 2019 | Rickie Fowler | -17 | +2000 |
| 2018 | Gary Woodland | -18 (Playoff) | +5000 |
| 2017 | Hideki Matsuyama | -17 (Playoff) | +1000 |
| 2016 | Hideki Matsuyama | -14 (Playoff) | +2500 |
| 2015 | Brooks Koepka | -15 | +4000 |
Golf betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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