WM Phoenix Open Sleepers & Long Shots 2025: Dark-Horse Picks to Win at TPC Scottsdale
Nick Taylor won the People's Open with odds of +12500 last year and we're looking to replicate that payday with our 2025 WM Phoenix Open sleepers and long-shot picks. Tee times begin at 9:20 a.m. ET this morning.
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite by the WM Phoenix Open odds, but his market-best odds of +280 are far too prohibitive in this strong 132-man field. Those odds would return a profit of just $28 on a winning $10 bet if Scheffler wins this event for a third time in four years.
We can do better as our sleeper picks complement my WM Phoenix Open picks to win on Super Bowl Sunday.
WM Phoenix Open sleepers
Golf picks are based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
- Wyndham Clark to win: +7000 via FanDuel
- Min Woo Lee to win: +8000 via BetRivers
- Joel Dahmen to win: +35000 via FanDuel
WM Phoenix Open betting action
John Ewing of BetMGM reports that Scheffler (+275) is the most bet golfer to win the WM Phoenix Open at the sportsbook. Scheffler has drawn 31% of the betting handle as the favorite to win.
WM Phoenix Open long-shot picks
Wyndham Clark to win
Best odds: +7000 | Implied win probability: 1.41%
Clark missed the cut in The American Express and tied for 73rd in last week's 80-man field. But +7000 odds for the No. 7 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR)? I'll take this every time.
He has averaged just 0.72 total strokes gained per round at TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course, but he tied for 10th just two years ago for his best result in six appearances in this event.
Every now and then we need to pick the price over current form. Clark's best Players Championship odds and U.S. Open odds are just +5000. We're getting an extra $200 in profit on a winning $10 bet in an easier event.
Min Woo Lee to win
Best odds: +8000 | Implied win probability: 1.23%
Lee debuted at the People's Open with a T-71 finish last year. He tied for 17th last week while averaging 1.10 strokes gained: approach per round.
Much like with backing Clark above, I'm also drawn to the inflated odds for the 52nd-ranked golfer in the OWGR. He's made 10 straight cuts, including the DP World Tour, dating back to last summer. The Australian is also a fan favorite who's likely to thrive in the party environment of the Stadium Course during his second appearance at TPC Scottsdale.
Joel Dahmen to win
Best odds: +35000 | Implied win probability: 0.28%
There was a time when Dahmen was the poster boy for the People's Open despite never finishing better than last year's T-41 in this event.
He enters this week at No. 209 in the OWGR, but he's coming off a T-9 in the Farmers Insurance Open to show some promise for turning his game around. He's gained strokes in all key metrics except for around the green across his last nine measured rounds.
A winning $10 bet would fetch a profit of $3,500.
WM Phoenix Open expert picks & predictions
- WM Phoenix Open first-round leader picks
- WM Phoenix Open sleepers and long shots
- WM Phoenix Open power rankings
- WM Phoenix Open picks to win
- WM Phoenix Open odds
WM Phoenix Open odds
Here are the latest WM Phoenix Open odds in real time showing the best odds from our best golf betting sites.
WM Phoenix Open betting history
Here are the last 10 outright winners of the WM Phoenix Open and their betting odds prior to Round 1:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Nick Taylor | -21 (Playoff) | +12500 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -19 | +1200 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -16 | +2500 |
| 2021 | Brooks Koepka | -19 | +4000 |
| 2020 | Webb Simpson | -17 (Playoff) | +1400 |
| 2019 | Rickie Fowler | -17 | +2000 |
| 2018 | Gary Woodland | -18 (Playoff) | +5000 |
| 2017 | Hideki Matsuyama | -17 (Playoff) | +1000 |
| 2016 | Hideki Matsuyama | -14 (Playoff) | +2500 |
| 2015 | Brooks Koepka | -15 | +4000 |
Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com.
Golf betting odds pages
Here are our best golf betting sites:
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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