WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Picks & Odds: Back Taylor to Grab Round 1 Lead
The PGA Tour is back at TPC Scottsdale this week. The tournament will conclude a little before kickoff of the Super Bowl, but we're focusing on Thursday with our WM Phoenix Open first-round leader picks. Tee times begin at 9:20 a.m. ET this morning.
Thursday's WM Phoenix Open tee times start at 9:20 a.m. ET off of both tees. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the 132-man field as he looks to win this event for the third time in four years, but it was Canadian Nick Taylor who won with pre-tournament odds of +12500 a year ago.
I expect him to start strong in his defense with my WM Phoenix Open first-round leader picks.
First-round leader picks: WM Phoenix Open
- Rasmus Hojgaard (+5500 via Caesars) | Tee time: 9:42 a.m. ET
- Nick Taylor (+6000 via DraftKIngs) | Tee time: 10:04 a.m. ET
- Luke Clanton (+6600 via bet365) | Tee time: 9:53 a.m. ET
WM Phoenix Open betting action
John Ewing of BetMGM reports that Scheffler (+275) is the most bet golfer to win the WM Phoenix Open at the sportsbook. Scheffler has drawn 31% of the betting handle as the favorite to win.
WM Phoenix Open first-round leader odds
First-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scheffler is the favorite in this market with +1200 odds representing an implied win probability of 7.69%.
Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
Who'll lead after Round 1?
Rasmus Hojgaard
Best odds: +5500 via Caesars | Implied win probability: 1.79%
Caesars is a 21+ product
Hojgaard enters this week at No. 41 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a T-22 finish in last week's Signature Event at Pebble Beach. He started with an opening round of 7-under, 65.
The Danish star was the runner-up in the DP World Tour's Tour Championship in November. He opened his 2025 schedule with a T-14 finish in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic.
Hojgaard makes his debut at TPC Scottsdale this week. His length off the tee and strong iron play make him a strong course fit.
Nick Taylor
Best odds: +6000 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 1.64%
The defending champion of the People's Open ranks 27th on the PGA Tour with a first-round scoring average of 68.00 through four events this year - one of which he won. He ranked 30th for the 2024 season in the same statistic.
Taylor's win last year followed a runner-up finish the year before, and he's averaging 0.59 true strokes gained on the field per round at the Stadium Course for his career.
I like his outright odds of +6500 at FanDuel to defend his title, but I don't mind the slightly shorter price for the 18-hole lead with a winning $10 bet still returning a profit of $600.
Luke Clanton
Best odds: +6600 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 1.49%
Terms and conditions apply.
Clanton makes his debut at TPC Scottsdale this week with plenty of motivation behind him.
The No. 1 amateur in the world can (finally) secure his PGA Tour card with a made cut this week. The 21-year-old is still enrolled at Florida State University but enters this week at No. 90 in the OWGR and with two runner-up finishes and another two top 10s on the PGA Tour.
He has plenty of driving distance and an excellent putting stroke.
What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
Thursday's weather at TPC Scottsdale:
- Temperate: 78 degrees
- Wind: 5 mph
- Precipitation: 0%
WM Phoenix Open expert picks & predictions
- WM Phoenix Open sleepers and long shots
- WM Phoenix Open power rankings
- WM Phoenix Open picks to win
- WM Phoenix Open odds
Golf betting odds pages
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