Masters First-Round Leader Odds & Predictions: Who'll Lead After Round 1?
The Masters begins Thursday morning at Augusta National Golf Course in Augusta, Ga., with the first tee time scheduled for 7:40 a.m. ET. The final members of the 95-man field will begin their quest for the green jacket at 1:45 p.m., but based on the early weather forecast - and with gusty afternoon winds ahead - we're focusing on the morning wave when we look at the Masters first-round leader odds and make our best predictions for the 18-hole leader.
Thursday's forecast for Augusta National Golf Course is expected to be dry during playing hours of the Masters' first round. However, winds will pick up significantly in the afternoon. That has us avoiding anyone teeing off later in the day with our first-round leader predictions.
The odds from our Masters betting sites don't yet seem to be taking that forecast into consideration, and bettors can benefit by acting early on this popular Masters betting market.
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📊 Masters first-round leader odds
The 2025 Masters first-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in this market with +1200 odds, representing an implied win probability of 7.69% and returning a profit of $120 on a winning $10 bet.
Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
💭 What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performances entering Thursday's first round.
🌬️ Thursday's weather at Augusta National Golf Course
It's expected to be around 70 degrees on Thursday morning in Augusta. There'll be a mix of sun and cloud but little chance of precipitation at this point in the week. Wind gusts will be around 17 mph.
The afternoon will warm up to 75 degrees, potentially leading to firmer and faster greens and fairways. More problematic will be the stronger wind gusts up to 21 mph.
Anyone who's ever watched the Masters should know that increases the chances of water balls and penalty strokes, and it wouldn't be the first time we see hopes of the green jacket dashed on Thursday.
👉 Don't miss the rest of our golf picks for more predictions on the 2025 Masters. Follow the latest Masters odds, which update in real time throughout the tournament.
💰 Masters 18-hole leader predictions
As part of our golf picks for 2025's first major, here are my favorite Masters first-round leader predictions for Thursday at Augusta National Golf Course. Use our player prop odds tool to get the latest and best odds for the golfer(s) of your choice.
🥱 Scottie Scheffler
👉 Best odds: +1200 via BetMGM ($10 pays $120)
Terms and conditions apply.
It feels like malpractice - and a missed opportunity - not to have money on Scheffler heading into Round 1. Our Masters AI predictions and my Masters power rankings have him pegged for a top-5 finish as he seeks his third green jacket in four years. We can aim a little higher with these market-best +1200 odds from BetMGM for the first-round lead.
Scheffler ranks ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2025 season with a first-round scoring average of 68.83 through six tournaments. Nobody with multiple appearances in the Masters averages better than his 3.25 true strokes gained on the field per round at ANGC. He'll tee off at 10:15 a.m. ET in a group with Justin Thomas and Spanish amateur Jose Luis Ballester.
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👀 Nicolai Hojgaard
👉 Best odds: +10000 via BetRivers ($10 pays $1,000)
Terms and conditions apply.
Hojgaard ranks 15th for the 2025 PGA Tour season in Round 1 scoring average at 69.17. He enters the week 82nd in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following three straight missed cuts, but he finished T-16 in his Masters debut last year, inspiring some hope.
He's averaging 0.43 strokes gained: approach across his last 20 measured rounds and is a strong putter. I'm most interested in his golfer-friendly 7:51 a.m. ET tee time for Thursday morning, as he'll be in the second group out alongside Kevin Yu and Jhonattan Vegas.
🤯 Zach Johnson
👉 Best odds: +20000 via bet365 ($10 pays $2,000)
Terms and conditions apply.
Let's get wild.
The 2007 Masters champion has just one top-10 finish at ANGC since (2015). However, he ranks 11th for the season with a Round 1 scoring average of 68.86 through seven events, he'll hit the course at 8:13 a.m. ET, and he's coming off a T-18 finish in the Valero Texas Open as his best result of the season to date.
By placing this bet early, we're hoping the wind picks up on Thursday and creates havoc for longer hitters playing their first round in the afternoon.
👀 Masters first-round leader betting insights
Here is how the betting action is breaking down on the first-round leader market at BetMGM:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (16.8) | Scottie Scheffler (16.8) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Rory McIlroy (10.3) | Rory McIlroy (10.6) | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Bryson DeChambeau (8.7) | Bryson DeChambeau (9.4) | Rory McIlroy |
🔮 Masters expert picks
- Masters parlay picks
- First-round leader predictions
- Masters AI predictions
- Masters long shots
- Masters power rankings
- Masters picks to win
- Masters odds
🌳 Masters info
📅 When: Thursday, April 10 - Sunday, April 13
⛳ Where: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Ga.
🏆 Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
📺 How to watch: ESPN, CBS, Masters.com
💰 Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+450 via BetMGM)
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
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