Early NBA Finals Predictions & Odds 2025/26: Favorites, Long Shots to Win NBA Finals
The trade deadline has passed with plenty of action, even some that got reversed, and the Super Bowl is over. Now its time to go full speed ahead to the NBA Finals.
Teams have a couple of months to determine their strengths and weaknesses entering the postseason, get their new teammates to click, and work out the kinks. Following the deadline, there were several swings in our best NBA Championship odds, but as always, that's created value for bettors who know where to look when determining which team can win it all.
NBA Finals predictions
- NBA Finals favorite pick: Thunder (+245 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- NBA Finals contender pick: Lakers (+2200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- NBA Finals long-shot pick: Mavericks (+4200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
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NBA Finals odds
NBA Finals odds analysis
- Following the trade deadline, the Lakers went from 40/1 to 14/1, though they settled in the 20/1 range after the Mark Williams trade was rescinded
- Dallas went from 20/1 to 40/1 after trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis
- The Warriors went from 66/1 to 40/1 at DraftKings after landing Jimmy Butler
- Boston remains the favorite in the Eastern Conference as the No. 2 seed
- Oklahoma City has been the favorite in the Western Conference all season
Early picks to win NBA Finals
NBA Finals favorite pick: Oklahoma City Thunder
Best odds: +245 via Caesars | Implied probability: 28.99%
Caesars is a 21+ product
Although the Thunder are favored to win the title at Caesars, that’s still the best place to shop for favorable odds. Oklahoma City is +230 to win it all at the rest of our best sports betting sites.
The Thunder opened with +950 odds in the summer and were +500 at the start of the season, so this is their worst championship price all year. But now that center Chet Holmgren has returned, the top-ranked defensive team will be even better and is well on its way to claiming the No. 1 seed in the West for the second straight season.
We are likely five months away from the Thunder securing their first championship since moving to Oklahoma City.
NBA Finals contender pick: Los Angeles Lakers
Best odds: +2200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.35%
With Williams returning to Charlotte, the Lakers have a serious problem at the center position. Jaxson Hayes is the team’s starting big man, and the Lakers will patch together a backup plan between small-ball lineups and the buyout market.
This team has genuine concerns, but it’s important to remember that Luka Doncic and LeBron James are about to share the floor. These are two of the best playoff performers in the sport, with Doncic coming off an NBA Finals run last year and James having 10 such trips.
Let’s not overthink this. The Lakers will be in the mix this summer, and FanDuel overreacted by dropping this line to 22/1 after the Williams’ news.
NBA Finals longshot pick: Dallas Mavericks
Best odds: +4200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 2.33%
The funniest outcome of this NBA season is the Mavericks winning the title. But I wouldn’t call it the craziest theory.
History says NBA champions have to be elite on one side of the ball and have an MVP contender on their team. The Mavs certainly have the former, as this defense projects to be one of the best in the league. In Davis’ debut, Dallas blocked 18 shots.
I question if the Mavs have an MVP contender, though Davis has certainly looked like one at times. He dominated on Saturday, finishing with 26 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks.
The Mavs’ title odds are as low as 25/1 at Caesars, indicating this outlier value at FanDuel.
NBA Finals FAQs
Who is the favorite for the NBA Finals?
The Oklahoma City Thunder are betting favorites to win the NBA Finals, trading at +245 odds. Those odds carry a 28.99% implied win probability.
When is the NBA Finals?
Game 1 of the NBA Finals will be June 5, 2025, airing on ABC.
Where is the NBA Finals?
The team with the better record will host the first two games of the NBA Finals.
Who won the NBA Finals last year?
The Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks in last year’s NBA Finals.
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