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Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Tuesday's Sports Slate

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: May 16, 2023 2:22 PM EDT • 3 min 37 sec read.

We've shopped the odds and lines at our best sportsbooks in search of today's best bets for Tuesday, May 16. Our top picks include offerings from the NBA, MLB, and golf.

The NBA and NHL seasons may be winding down, but the calendar remains full with sporting options. Tuesday's offerings include the opening game of the NBA conference finals and an outright winner for the upcoming PGA Championship.

Read on for today's best bets for Tuesday, May 16, based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Tuesday's best bets

  • NBA: LeBron James Over 5.5 assists (-104 via BetRivers) vs. Nuggets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • MLB: Luis Castillo Under 17.5 outs recorded (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Golf: Rory McIlroy outright winner (+1400 via DraftKings)

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Tuesday's NBA best bet

LeBron James Over 5.5 assists vs. Nuggets (-104 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We're starting Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in a similar fashion to how I opened Game 1 of the Lakers' series against the Golden State Warriors, placing a bet on James to record more than 5.5 assists. Let's hope he doesn't record four assists in the first quarter and then fail to get another one for the entire game, as we witnessed last time.

James is projected to have 6.2 assists against the Nuggets on Tuesday, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -135. With this projection, the bet shows a positive expected value of 13%.

Not only do we observe an advantage in James' assist prop based on the projections, but we're also able to take advantage of a rogue price offered by BetRivers, further increasing our expected value. FanDuel offers the next best price at -113, while Caesars has much shorter odds at -132, which is very close to our price of -135.

This favorable price is highly beneficial in this scenario because even the slight difference between BetRivers (-104) and FanDuel (-113), which may appear insignificant in terms of cents, would reduce your expected value by approximately 4% if you were to bet at FanDuel.

Our Shane Jackson also likes Austin Reaves' assists prop, as he wrote in his Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions.

NBA best bet made by Jon Metler

Check out all of our NBA best bets, and our 2023 NBA Finals odds and 2023 NBA MVP odds.

Tuesday's MLB best bet

Luis Castillo Under 17.5 outs recorded vs. Red Sox (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In his last four starts, Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has recorded more than 15 outs just once. He has thrown 95-plus pitches in each of those starts, so he hasn't been given any quick hooks. However, he has allowed at least eight baserunners in all of his shorter five-inning appearances, with his pitch count also being driven up by high strikeout totals (eight-plus strikeouts in two of his last four). 

The Boston Red Sox endured a disappointing home sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals, being held to 10 runs over the three games. However, this is still an offense that entered Monday ranked first in batting average (.290), third in BABIP (.333), fifth in wRC+, and had the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in their 23 home games this season. Thus, this is a four-star play, as the Red Sox have the weapons to ensure Castillo has a short outing.

Caesars offers slightly worse -107 odds for this wager, so we are making this play at DraftKings.

MLB best bet made by Mike Spector

Tuesday's golf best bet

Rory McIlroy to win (+1400 via DraftKings)

What makes golf different (and more enjoyable to bet) than the Big Six team sports in North America is that we can keep going back to the well with a popular pick despite a poor recent run because the odds have increased. In the case of McIlroy's odds, the prices have increased to the point where it would be malpractice to not bet on him for a third career Wanamaker Trophy with our PGA Championship outright picks.

McIlroy is third on the consensus oddsboard at our best sports betting apps and is available with odds as high as +1400 via DraftKings and PointsBet. However, we're going to side strongly with DraftKings because its one-time +300 odds surge on any outright pick brings McIlroy's odds up to +1700. That moves his odds above those of Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who have logged a combined zero major wins.

Yes, McIlroy completely flamed out with a missed cut during The Players Championship and in the Masters as the betting favorite. And he finished just T-47 in the Wells Fargo Championship. However, the No. 3 golfer in the OWGR won the 2022 Tour Championship, with two other international victories since.

Like the Tour Championship, the 2023 PGA Championship will be played at a course that famed golf architect Donald Ross originally designed. That suited McIlroy well with his T-8 finish at Oak Hill CC in 2013.

McIlroy won't face the same pressures at Oak Hill that he regularly deals with at Augusta National, where he seeks the career grand slam. He's also taken a longer-than-usual break from competitive golf during the leadup to this event and should be well-prepped.

PGA championship outright picks made by Esten McLaren

Check out our best sports betting apps:

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Sportsbook Review
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