Purdue vs. Michigan State Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks for Tonight: Can Chiles Step Up?
With wins against Purdue and Rutgers, the Michigan State Spartans can still earn bowl eligibility. The 4-6 Spartans, who've lost five of the last six, face the 1-9 Boilermakers tonight (8 p.m. ET on FOX) from Spartan Stadium in Lansing, Mich.
We do a deep game-analysis dive in our Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction, and our Purdue vs. Michigan State player prop bets feature Devin Mockobee, Aidan Chiles, and Reggie Love III.
The below picks are part of our college football Week 13 predictions.
Purdue vs. Michigan State college football player prop bets: Friday
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Devin Mockobee touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Aidan Chiles 2+ passing touchdowns (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Reggie Love III Under 27.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Purdue vs. Michigan State touchdown pick
Devin Mockobee anytime touchdown scorer (+130) ⭐⭐⭐
Let’s preface this pick with a grim reality: neither team has a reliable touchdown scorer in its ranks. Nobody on either side has more than three rushing or receiving touchdowns this year. Mockobee is one of the few who has reached this mark.
While Michigan State’s two-headed rushing attack (Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter) has the highest probability of scoring, we’re looking to Mockobee as an anytime touchdown pick given his volume. Lynch-Adams and Carter share carries at an inconsistent rate on the other side, whereas Mockobee is the man for the Boilermakers.
The Spartans don’t surrender many yards (129.7 rushing yards allowed per game), but opposing backs find the end zone frequently.
Michigan State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to score multiple touchdowns on the ground. Mockobee has been given double-digit carries across the last eight weeks. FanDuel lists him at plus money to find the end zone for a fourth time this season. If he does, a $10 wager returns $13.
Best odds: +130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.48%
Best Purdue vs. Michigan State prop bets
Aidan Chiles 2+ passing touchdowns (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chiles hasn’t lit up the stat sheet with 10 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions this season. The Michigan State sophomore signal-caller has posted just two multi-touchdown games over 10 weeks. Luckily for Chiles, one of the country’s worst pass defenses comes to East Lansing in Week 13.
Purdue ranks among the bottom of the country in nearly every pass defense metric available. The Boilermakers are 109th in passing yards allowed (252.4 per game). Only 15 teams have given up more touchdowns through the air than Purdue (19), one of which is Maryland, which Chiles torched for 363 yards and three touchdowns.
Michigan State is a huge home favorite, and if it is going to score as many points as our best sports betting apps expect (team total O/U 30.5), Chiles will play his part. DraftKings has the best odds (+105) on the market for the quarterback’s prop.
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%
Reggie Love III Under 27.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
As we alluded to in a previous pick, Michigan State doesn’t give up many yards on the ground. The Spartans have the 46th-best rush defense nationally compared to Purdue’s 93rd-rated ground game. Seeing as the Boilermakers are huge underdogs, it’s not likely they’ll be focused on setting up a rushing attack to get backup Love a plethora of touches.
In fact, Love has registered only 10 or more carries twice in the last six weeks. Both of those games involved him going Over 27.5 yards, but in games when he’s failed to reach double-digit carries, he’s gone Under in all but one (vs. Indiana State). For these reasons, we feel his yardage prop is a bit steep for this conference clash - we’re leaning Under.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Purdue vs. Michigan State game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 22
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Mich.)
- How to watch: Fox
- Weather: 39 degrees, 32% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
- Favorite: Michigan State -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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