College Football Playoff's Most Important Weeks & Matchups of 2024 Season

The most anticipated college football season in the history of the sport is almost here, with conference realignment and the expanded College Football Playoff giving us more massive matchups than ever before.

With so many marquee games this season, every week the new College Football Playoff bracket will be impacted as AP Top 25 programs fall to one another.

With just 12 spots in the expanded playoff - seven of which are at-large bids - it makes the fight to rise up the College Football Playoff odds harder than ever, especially for programs outside of the Big Ten and SEC.

Eight of the 10 teams atop the college football championship odds come from one of the big two conferences, which has loaded up the schedule with a plethora of can't miss games and several weeks that will define the season.  

Most important weeks for new College Football Playoff bracket

Week 5: One of the biggest games of the year ... and Alabama-Georgia

Sure, Georgia at Alabama is one of the biggest games of the year, but there might not be a more do-or-die matchup for the College Football Playoff than Liberty at Appalachian State. 

With the highest-ranked Group of Five champion guaranteed a spot in the CFP, this could be a "win and you're in" type of matchup. The Flames have the shortest College Football Playoff odds among G5 programs (+400) and are expected to win double-digit games and a second straight C-USA title behind a devastating run game.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers might be the best value play to earn the G5 CFP spot at +1400. They're the favorites to be the Sun Belt champ and return most of their key pieces from last year.

Of course, the Bulldogs heading to Tuscaloosa is actually the biggest game of Week 5. Even with Nick Saban gone, Alabama still has a Heisman Trophy odds contender in QB Jalen Milroe and new head coach Kalen DeBoer just proved he can lead a team to the CFP. Georgia is a 4.5-point road favorite for what should be the Crimson Tide's most important game of the regular season.

A pair of major ACC and Big 12 matchups

Not as goosebump-inducing, sure, but the Big 12 has a pair of games that could have a major impact on the race to earn the conference crown - and could perhaps play a role in deciding one of the at-large bids.

Oklahoma State and Kansas State are both in the top three by the Big 12 Championship odds while Utah, which plays Arizona, is the favorite to win the conference and earn an automatic CFP bid. The Wildcats are a 5.5-point favorite at home and the Utes are a 9.5-point favorite.

The ACC also has two very interesting games. Virginia Tech has been tabbed as a major sleeper thanks to it leading the country in returning production, and it has a chance to make a statement against Miami. The Hurricanes are a popular pick to make the CFP thanks to Mario Cristobal adding so much in the transfer portal. Miami is a 7.5-point favorite. 

But it's Florida State that leads the ACC Championship odds, and the Seminoles play a spicy SMU program that's new to the conference after ranking 24th in SP+ last season.

Week 7: The impact of conference realignment

This might be the week it truly sinks in how much conference realignment has impacted the schedule. It will be early October, and we'll have two former Pac-12 powers playing against the likes of Ohio State and Penn State.

The Buckeyes heading to Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks is the type of game you miss a wedding for. I say this only half-kidding.

It's a pick 'em right now with these two teams ranking No. 2 and 3, respectively, and both sitting with odds no longer than -300 to make the CFP.

What really makes it a must-watch is the fact that Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is the Heisman favorite (+750) and Ohio State has arguably the best defense in the country with so many players back from a group that finished 2nd in SP+ last season.

USC will also get the chance to upset Penn State in a game that could give the Trojans a major boost. I'm not sure anyone who watched Lincoln Riley's team last season believes they should be ranked - the Nittany Lions are a 4-point road favorite.

Red River, Magnolia, another G5 clash, and Deion

Week 7 also features the Red River Rivalry for the first time as an SEC conference game. Texas is an 8.5-point favorite and viewed as one of the big four this season - with Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon - but anything can happen in a rivalry game.

Ole Miss also has a huge test playing at Tiger Stadium in the Magnolia Bowl. LSU's a 2.5-point favorite against a Rebels team many are projecting to earn a spot in the CFP.

While it's not on the same level as the Big Ten and SEC games, Memphis at USF is one of the better Group of Five games this season. The Tigers are the AAC favorites and the Bulls are an ascending team. If it's not Liberty or App State earning the G5 CFP spot, it will likely be the AAC champ.

Oh yeah, there's also Colorado playing a home game against a feisty Kansas State team. Surely by Week 7 the Deion Sanders discourse will have run its course ... at least I hope. Maybe Shedeur Sanders can lead an upset?

Week 9: Huge tests for CFP favorites

While it doesn't have the clear-cut "drop everything you're doing to tune in" game, Week 9 will be defined by the amount of depth to it. There are five games between preseason top-25 programs and all five could play a role in helping (or hurting) a program's chances of playing in a P4 conference championship.

Despite it being all about the depth, I think it's fair to assume that Florida State heading to Hard Rock Stadium to take on Miami is the top matchup of the week.

Both teams are viewed as having the talent to win the ACC, and both could end up in the College Football Playoff - I expect two of FSU, Miami, and Clemson to get in. The Seminoles are a 1-point favorite on the road.

While Missouri doesn't have the hype you'd expect for a team that went 11-2 and finished 10th in SP+ last season, the Tigers are still ranked No. 11. They could be a tough out for DeBoer's new team, especially with Luther Burden being a Heisman Trophy dark horse. Could the Tigers pull the upset in Tuscaloosa as an 8.5-point underdog?

To old friends and new

In what quietly looks like it could be the game of the year in the Big 12, the Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State is going to be pure fun. New Wildcats starting QB Avery Johnson is expected to be electric, while the Jayhawks have a top-notch QB-RB duo in Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal. Those two could lead an upset as a 7-point underdog.

Even with the LSU-Texas A&M rivalry not having nearly the same clout, it could go a long way in one of these teams making the CFP as an at-large. Tigers head coach Brian Kelly has been a disappointment in Baton Rouge, so winning at Kyle Field as a 2-point underdog against new head coach Mike Elko is a must.

Speaking of must-wins, Lane Kiffin won't lose at home against new SEC rival Oklahoma, right? The Rebs are a 6-point favorite, but the Sooners defense could be really strong in Year 3 under Brent Venables.

And don't forget about Boise State's biggest conference game of the season on the road at UNLV. If the Broncos hope to live up to being the Mountain West Championship odds favorite and make the CFP, they have to win this one.

Week 10: A cocktail party and some fun matchups

Everyone pour one out for Billy Napier. I'm just not sure how he's going to keep his job with Florida playing the toughest schedule in the country. The Gators kick off five straight games against top-13 teams to end the season with a date with Georgia in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

The Gators are 21-point underdogs, and nobody thinks they'll win, but it's a classic rivalry game in a week that holds a lot of importance thanks to the other matchups. I just wanted to take a moment to point out that after No. 1 Georgia, Florida plays No. 4 Texas, No. 13 LSU, No. 6 Ole Miss, and No. 10 Florida State. Is that the hardest stretch in college football history?

The games that actually matter

It's hard to get a feel for what Michigan will look like this season without Jim Harbaugh, Connor Stalions, JJ McCarthy, and several other players who are now in the NFL. It would be silly to assume they'll just tumble far, so seeing how they handle Oregon at The Big House could help their CFP resume if they don't win the Big Ten.

The defense has some future first-round picks and the likely starting QB (Alex Orji) was on the Freaks List, so they could be a really tough out for Dan Lanning's Ducks. Oregon is just a 3.5-point favorite in what will feel more like a bare-knuckle bar fight than a football game.

Just under 400 miles away, the Buckeyes will be playing at Beaver Stadium against Penn State. Nobody's going to expect James Franklin's Nittany Lions to win as a 4-point underdog, but a close game would be huge in the eyes of the CFP committee.

Over 2,500 miles from Beaver Stadium, a fellow Big Ten game will be going down with two new members who geographically don't make any sense. This late into the season could either of USC or Washington be alive in the playoff hunt? Both lost top-10 picks at QB, which is why I'm confused as to why the Trojans are ranked if the Huskies aren't - Jedd Fisch is a good coach!

In the Big 12, Fisch's former team could be a sleeper to make the playoff with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan back. A convincing win against UCF might be difficult, though, with how perfectly new QB KJ Jefferson fits Gus Malzhan's system.

And in the G5, we've got another Memphis game against a talented UTSA squad that will try to reinvent itself with long-time star QB Frank Harris finally gone after several years as the starter.

Week 11: Big road games for championship contenders

If Georgia loses a regular-season game this year, I think it comes at the hands of either Alabama in Week 5 or Ole Miss in Week 11 - sorry, I'm just not buying Texas. The Rebels' offense is loaded with playmakers and an NFL talent at QB in Jaxson Dart.

Yet, Georgia is a 7-point road favorite at The Vaught because they have a QB in Carson Beck who leads the 2025 NFL Draft odds and a devastating defense littered with five-star talent. Just putting up a fight will look good for Kiffin's chances at getting in the CFP.

That won't be the only game between two likely College Football Playoff squads with Florida State going to South Bend to play Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish can't earn a bye because they remain independent, but their path to the playoff is clear, even more so if they beat the Seminoles at home as a 4-point favorite.

Similarly, a win at home for LSU against Alabama in Week 11 would prove the Tigers are at least worth considering for the CFP. They're a 1.5-point favorite against the Crimson Tide, but will need Garrett Nussmeier to fill the large shoes left by Jayden Daniels if they hope to win enough games to get in.

Could they be in the CFP?

Unlike those three games, Oklahoma going to Missouri might not matter in the CFP race with the SEC likely to eat itself alive to some extent. Still, nobody expected the Tigers to finish in the top 10 last season, and the Sooners were ranked No. 12 going into their bowl game by the CFP committee.

So if both theoretically would have been at least considered for the playoff last year, could they both be again this year? Missouri is a 3-point home favorite in an underrated game in a loaded week.

Another underrated game is Clemson going to Virginia Tech. The Hokies might not make the playoff, but they could be the reason the Tigers don't with some upset potential here. Virginia Tech has one of the most experienced rosters in the ACC and could win as a 4.5-point dog.

And going from one Carolina team to two others: if Appalachian State beats Liberty, it'll need to handle business in a Sun Belt with plenty of depth. The Mountaineers are far better than Coastal Carolina on paper, but winning on the teal turf is never easy.

Week 14: The Game ... and the rest of Rivalry Week

It used to be that Rivalry Week was the best slate of games of the year. Conference realignment has sort of messed with that, and half the rivalry games either aren't the same or no longer exist. (I miss the Border War between Kansas and Missouri.)

One rivalry that will never go away is The Game between Michigan and Ohio State. For my money, it's the best rivalry in all of sports, and Harbaugh ending the Buckeyes' dominance has made it all that much more intriguing. With Harbaugh gone, will Ryan Day finally win?

The Buckeyes are a 10-point favorite, and depending on how the season goes, these two could actually play in back-to-back weeks if Oregon blows its chances at playing in the Big Ten Championship.

The Iron Bowl, the return of the Lone Star Showdown, and the other "rivalries"

I'm firmly not a believer in Hugh Freeze or Auburn. With that said, records can be thrown out in the Iron Bowl, and it's going to be DeBoer's first. Even with Alabama as a 14-point home favorite, this game should be a close one and its outcome could have a major impact on the Crimson Tide's playoff hopes. 

Rivalry Week also marks the return of the Lone Star Showdown between Texas and Texas A&M. Asking the Longhorns to play an SEC schedule and end it with an old rival at one of the loudest stadiums in the country is a recipe for an upset. Texas is a 4-point favorite in a game the Aggies will have some extra pep in their step for.

Though not a rivalry like the others, Notre Dame-USC is a yearly classic. Maybe the Trojans will still be alive this late into the season, or maybe they could stomp on the Fighting Irish's playoff hopes. USC is a 3.5-point underdog at home in a game that Riley detractors will surely watch closely.

Even though Oklahoma-LSU isn't a real rivalry, it's a fun game between two top-20 teams. I don't think the Sooners will be in the playoff conversation this late, but they could at least end LSU's hopes of making it. The Tigers are a 5-point favorite against their newest manufactured rival.

About an hour and a half southeast, Tulane will have a huge opportunity against Memphis. The Green Wave have had so much turnover, but Jon Sumrall is a heck of a coach and knocking off the Tigers could give him a shot at the AAC Championship.

Other can't miss matchups for the new College Football Playoff bracket

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