Using Returning Production to Find College Football Winners: Which Teams Should You Back/Fade?
No sport deals with more roster turnover than college football. Between graduation, players turning pro, the transfer portal, and NIL, it's harder than ever to bring back significant returning production.
That's why ESPN's Bill Connelly tracks which teams are bringing back the most and who deals with the biggest hits to their production. Obviously, roster construction has changed a lot in recent years, which is why Connolly is constantly updating the formula.
Despite the changes, the metric still serves the same purpose, with more returning production correlating well with improvement and low returning production generally leading to regression. The transfer portal has had the biggest impact, with Connolly saying, "Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team."
While returning production can be important for top teams by the college football championship odds, those tend to be the same teams regardless of what they bring back, thanks to their strong recruiting. However, with the expanded playoffs, this metric could help find sleepers by the College Football Playoff odds.
It's also a great indicator for whether to bet the Over or Under on college football projected win totals and which teams have the best odds to win their conference from our best sports betting sites. Here's a look at the teams to target and the teams to fade based on returning production.
Most returning production in college football
| Team | Returning production | Returning offensive production | Returning defensive production |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | 86% | 95% | 77% |
| Iowa State | 85% | 90% | 80% |
| Nebraska | 77% | 76% | 78% |
| Oklahoma State | 77% | 77% | 74% |
| Virginia | 76% | 85% | 68% |
| Northwestern | 76% | 64% | 88% |
| Kennesaw State | 76% | 80% | 71% |
| Rutgers | 74% | 69% | 79% |
| Miami (OH) | 74% | 79% | 70% |
| Syracuse | 74% | 81% | 67% |
Best college football teams to back
Virginia Tech Over 8.5 wins (+130)
It's no longer a secret that Virginia Tech will be good this season. This might be the most hyped Hokies team since the Frank Beamer days, and it's thanks to head coach Brent Pry overachieving with seven wins last season. Now, in Pry's third season at the helm, Virginia Tech returns the most production in the country.
Quarterback Kyron Drones, a Heisman Trophy odds dark horse, leads the charge. In his first season in Blacksburg last year, the Baylor transfer reignited Virginia Tech's offense and helped it score 29.5 points per game while averaging 189.8 yards on the ground.
It's not just Drones and his dual-threat ability that make this offense scary. It also returns starting running back Bhayshul Tuten, who forced the 10th-most missed tackles in the country last season, per PFF. Leading receivers Da'Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane are back, as is a healthy Ali Jennings.
Meanwhile, defense is Pry's bread and butter and he has a few dogs in pass rusher Anwaun Ryland-Powell and cornerback Dorian Strong. He even landed one of the top defensive tackles in the portal in Aeneas Peebles (Duke).
If Drones continues to get better, Virginia Tech should be a top 25 team this season. The Hokies' toughest games are on the road against Miami and at home against Clemson, other than that, they'll likely be favored in every other game. If you're feeling really bullish on the Hokies, they're +1200 by the ACC Championship odds.
Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Oklahoma State Over 8.5 wins (+122)
It's not even August and Mike Gundy is making headlines, the man is a soundbite machine. He also seems to win in Stillwater no matter what his roster looks like, and last season may have been the most impressive one yet. Oklahoma State opened the season 2-2 with a blowout loss at home to a South Alabama team that only won seven games.
The Cowboys somehow managed to win eight of their next 10 games and even played Texas in the Big 12 Championship. Well, the Longhorns and hated rival Oklahoma are now off to the SEC making things even easier on a roster that brings back the fourth-most production in the country.
Star running back Ollie Gordon led the country in rushing last year (1,732) and had the most 15-plus-yard runs (31). His big-play ability will always give Oklahoma State a chance, and he's not the only playmaker returning. Wide receivers Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens are also back after combining for over 1,800 receiving yards. Seventh-year senior Alan Bowman is a steady hand behind center.
The defense was young last year and made it's share of mistakes, but is better for it this season. It's led by one of the best linebacker trios in the country - Collin Oliver, Nick Martin, and Justin Wright.
While Oklahoma State does have to play Utah and Kansas State this season, the fact that Bedlam is of its schedule makes things a lot easier. The Pokes have the third-shortest Big 12 Championship odds and only have the 84th-hardest schedule in the country. A $10 winning bet on Oklahoma State pays a $12.20 profit.
Best odds: +122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.05%
Miami (OH) to win MAC (+250)
After improbably winning the conference last year despite being down starting QB Brett Gabbert for most of the season, Miami (OH) opened as the favorite by the MAC Championship odds. This conference hasn't had a back-to-back champ in a decade, but the RedHawks look serious this season.
Head coach Chuck Martin is one of the most underrated bench bosses in the sport, and Gabbert is one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks when healthy. This will be his sixth season as the starter, and even with some losses in the portal, this offense should be consistent thanks to the best offensive line in the MAC.
But it's the defense that really gives Miami (OH) the edge this year. This unit allowed the eighth-fewest points per game in the country last season (15.9) and brings back the bulk of its star power.
Matthew Salopek, MAC Defensive Player of the Year last season, and Ty Wise make up one of the best linebacker duos in the country. And pass rusher Brian Ugwu is a future NFL player with 22 TFLs the last two seasons.
With a mammoth offensive line and a ferocious defense, Miami (OH) is built to win the MAC. Its biggest competition comes from Toledo, which only returns the 119th-most production in the country. A $10 winning bet on the RedHawks pays a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.57%
Syracuse Over 7.5 wins (+125)
I feel strange advising Syracuse is a team worth backing this season, but it's true. The hire of Fran Brown was a slam dunk with the former Georgia defensive backs coach immediately upgrading the roster.
Known as one of the best recruiters in the country, Brown added to a veteran roster in the portal. His hire of Elijah Robinson - another stud recruiter - as defensive coordinator certainly helped, too. The pair of them landed QB Kyle McCord (Ohio State), wide receiver Justus Ross-Simmons (Colorado State), defensive back Duce Chestnut (LSU), and pass rusher Fadil Diggs (Texas A&M).
All of those transfers, and a few others, are expected to start. And that's not even mentioning the key returning starters. Running back LeQuint Allen topped 1,000 yards last season, linebacker Marlowe Wax is one of the best in the country, and safety Justin Barron is preseason All-ACC.
But the secret weapon that makes this offense so interesting is tight end-wide receiver tweener Oronde Gadsden II. Gadsden missed most of last season after having nearly 1,000 yards as a sophomore.
This is, without a doubt, one of the biggest swings I'm taking. It's a new coaching staff that's relying on transfers, yet there's so much experience here. The Orange also don't have to play Clemson and get both Virginia Tech and Miami at home. 8-4 is possible, and these odds pay a $12.50 profit if Syracuse gets there.
Best odds: +125 via Caesars | Implied probability: 44.44%
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USF to win AAC (+700)
With the expanded playoff, the top-ranked team from a Group of Five conference will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff this season. That team will likely be Boise State, Liberty, or the winner of the AAC.
Memphis is the favorite to take the AAC crown, which is a good bet given its 26th-ranked return production. But I really like the price on USF from FanDuel. This same bet is as short as +400—implying a 20% win probability—but these odds pay a $70 profit on a $10 winning bet.
So why back the Bulls? Well, they're 17th in returning production (72%) and fourth in offensive returning production (87%) and somehow won seven games last year after winning just eight total in the previous four seasons. That's the impact of having a competent head coach and star quarterback.
Head coach Alex Golesh implemented his veer-and-shoot offense in his first season in charge last year, and sophomore QB Byrum Brown thrived. Brown totaled 37 touchdowns and put himself on the NFL's radar - he's ranked as the fifth-best underclassmen QB prospect by The Athletic's Dane Brugler.
Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA are the programs with shorter odds to win the AAC, but USF catches the Tigers at home. Plus, Tulane has a ton of turnover with a new head coach and UTSA is 111th in returning production.
Best odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 12.50%
Least returning production in college football
| Team | Returning production | Returning offensive production | Returning defensive production |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 25% | 28% | 23% |
| Ohio | 27% | 22% | 33% |
| Buffalo | 29% | 31% | 28% |
| Georgia State | 32% | 28% | 36% |
| Washington | 36% | 19% | 52% |
| Troy | 36% | 42% | 29% |
| Michigan | 36% | 24% | 47% |
| North Carolina | 37% | 37% | 36% |
| James Madison | 39% | 40% | 38% |
| UL-Monroe | 40% | 39% | 41% |
Best college football teams to fade
Washington Under 7.5 wins (-120)
You'll notice that each of the five teams I'm fading lost their head coach in the carousel or their star quarterback to the first round of the NFL draft. Washington lost both.
After leading the Huskies to the national title game, Kalen DeBoer took the Alabama job, and most of Washington's key players from last year either transferred or took their talents to the NFL draft - they had seven players selected in the top 100 picks.
That's more star talent than most teams lose in two offseasons. When DeBoer left, several other stars transferred — Parker Brailsford (Alabama), Germie Bernard (Alabama), and Jabbar Muhammad (Oregon). That's how you go from the natty to fewer than eight wins.
While I think new head coach Jedd Fisch will get the Huskies on track, I don't see it happening this year with the cupboards left bare. Fisch did bring running back Jonah Coleman with him from Arizona, however, he couldn't get QB Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to join him.
Quarterback Will Rogers (Mississippi State) is experienced but will be behind an offensive line that starts five new players, including four underclassmen. The defense brings back just two starters, two more than the offense.
Joining the Big Ten makes it all that much harder to stomach, with the Huskies having the seventh-toughest schedule in the country. A $10 winning bet on the Under pays an $8.33 profit.
Best odds: -120 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.55%
Troy Under 6.5 wins (-110)
There may not have been a bigger coaching downgrade this offseason than Troy replacing Jon Sumrall, who took the head job at Tulane, with Gerad Parker. Parker's hire is perplexing because he has no ties to the Trojans or the Alabama area and turned in a mediocre season as Notre Dame's offensive coordinator.
The only borderline connection to Troy I can find is that he and Sumrall played together at Kentucky. So it's not even a connection to the school, just that he's friends with the successful former head coach? Interesting move for one of the better G5 programs.
If that's not reason enough to fade Troy, it ranks 129th in returning production and lost the heart and soul of its offense and defense. Running back Kimani Vidal had the third-most yards after contact in the country last season (1,056), and pass rusher Javon Solomon led college football in sacks (16). Both were selected in the NFL draft.
They're both gone, Sumrall's gone, quarterback Gunnar Watson is gone, the top three pass catchers are gone, and most of the star defenders are gone. Troy also has a schedule that includes Memphis and Iowa on the road out of conference.
I can't find seven wins on this schedule, and if they don't get there, a $10 bet on this Under pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
North Carolina Under 7.5 wins (+100)
There's no way most people expected Mack Brown to still be head coach at North Carolina when he was hired in 2019. It seemed weird then, but it has ultimately gone better than expected, even if the Tar Heels seemingly always underachieve.
Last season, with the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL draft at quarterback, North Carolina went just 8-5. That's why I don't think expecting them to match that win total with Drake Maye gone is very realistic.
North Carolina has a three-way QB battle right now with Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson expected to win the job. Between starts with the Aggies and at LSU, Johnson has never looked like anything beyond an average quarterback. So inserting him into an offense that returns the 122nd most production doesn't seem like a recipe for success.
The Tar Heels lose four starters on the offensive line and their best wide receiver (Devontez Walker). Even with a star in running back Omarion Hampton, the Heels look like they'll struggle. The defense also loses plenty, and it was just 78th in SP+ last season.
With Minnesota, Duke, Florida State, and Boston College on the road, as well as NC State to close the year, getting to eight wins with this team might be Brown's best coaching job.
Best odds: +100 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50%
James Madison Under 8 wins (+100)
This is sort of like the Washington of the Group of Five. The head coach left, the new hire is a good one, but the vast majority of its talent is gone. Unlike with the Huskies, most of the the Dukes' best players didn't go pro, they followed their head coach to his next stop.
After going 11-1 with JMU, Curt Cignetti took the Indiana job and brought 13 players with him, including most of the key starters - star quarterback Jordan McCloud didn't follow him, but did transfer to Texas State. That puts new head coach Bob Chesney, who I think was a perfect hire, in a tough spot in his first season.
The Dukes have a transfer at QB (Dylan Morris from Washington) and running back (Ayo Adeyi from North Texas), and all new starters at pass catcher. But the defensive losses are even worse. James Madison brings back just two starters and loses its entire vaunted defensive line.
The Dukes should still be a bowl eligible squad but getting to more than seven wins in a loaded Sun Belt with so many new pieces feels like a tough ask of Chesney in his first season. They also have to play North Carolina on the road on top of having Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, and Marshall.
If the Dukes win fewer than eight games, a $10 bet on these odds pays a $10 profit.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%
Oregon State Under 7.5 wins (-125)
I feel for the Oregon State faithful. They'd finally rebounded from the Gary Anderson era with the prodigal son returning home. Then the Pac-12 died and Jonathan Smith bolted for Michigan State after leading the Beavers to 18 wins the last two years.
Oregon State AD Scott Barnes made the smart decision to name Smith's defensive coordinator Trent Bray the head coach. Bray's a former all-conference linebacker for the Beavers and has a decade of coaching experience with the program.
That said, he feels like a stopgap hire as the program navigates conference purgatory. He also has to deal with losing his starting quarterback, backup quarterback, bell cow running back, go-to wide receiver and tight end, star defensive lineman, and top safety to the portal. On top of that, the Beavers lost three of their best players to the NFL.
This looks like a Group of Five roster on paper with the likely starting QB being an Idaho transfer (Gevani McCoy) and just three total returning starters.
Given that the Beavers aren't in a real conference, they have a bizarre Mountain West-heavy schedule. It's not easy, though, with Oregon, UNLV, Washington State, Cal, and Boise State on the road. A $10 bet on the Under pays an $8 profit.
Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%
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