College Football Expert Picks for Saturday: Storybook Ending for Chevan Cordeiro

Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together a list of their college football expert picks for Saturday’s college bowl game slate. The picks are based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps, and this page will serve as your one-stop shop featuring our best picks for Saturday.

It's that time of the year when we have to decide what's more important: watching a lot of sports or not being despised by our family members for doing so.

Either way, our college football experts have you set with some of their favorite picks for Saturday’s bowl game slate. For our complete betting coverage, check out our College Football Best Bets and College Football Player Props ahead of all the action.

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our best college football expert picks for Saturday’s bowl games (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football schedule for Saturday

(Odds via Caesars)

• Duke vs. Troy (-7)
• Arkansas State (-3) vs. Northern Illinois
• James Madison (-1) vs. Air Force
• Georgia State vs. Utah State (-1.5)
• South Alabama (-17) vs. Eastern Michigan
• Utah (-6) vs. Northwestern
• Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-10)

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College football expert picks for Saturday’s bowl games

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College football top picks for Saturday

Chevan Cordeiro Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

When it comes to betting on bowls, deciphering motivation becomes such a huge part of the handicap. Well, there won’t be many people more motivated than San Jose State quarterback Chevan Cordeiro during his final collegiate game in this year’s Hawaii Bowl against Coastal Carolina.

It’s a full-circle moment for Cordeiro, who began his career by playing three seasons with Hawaii before transferring to San Jose State the last two years. The Mountain West Conference’s all-time leader in touchdowns even practiced on the same field that he grew up on in Honolulu to prepare for this bowl game.

Narrative aside, the projections are in our favor for this prop at the best sportsbooks. We have him finishing with two-plus passing touchdowns in a game that San Jose State is roughly a double-digit favorite. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games and 11-of-14 wins in his two years with the Spartans.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Troy team total Over 27.5 (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is arguably no point spread in any bowl game more of a microcosm of the impact of the transfer portal and player opt-outs than Troy being more than a touchdown favorite against Duke. 

The Trojans are on 10-game winning streak led by a dominant defense that entered the Sun Belt Championship Game ranked in the top 20 in Rush Success, Pass Success, and Line Yards, as well as the top 10 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives allowed. And now that former Duke starting quarterback Riley Leonard announced he is transferring to Notre Dame, the Blue Devils are not likely to move the ball consistently in this matchup.

Troy’s offense faces a Duke defense ravaged by the portal and opt-outs, as the Blue Devils will be missing six players who played 387-plus snaps. That does not even include defensive lineman DeWayne Carter, who received an invite to the Senior Bowl and could still sit out. A Trojans team not known for a prolific offense (they entered their last game ranked 70th or worse in both Pass and Rush Success) still scored 28-plus points in their final six games, but they were always a top-40 offense in terms of Quality Drives and should have plenty of those against the short-handed Blue Devils.

With bet365 offering -110 odds to back Troy’s team total Over 27, we are getting much better value with the plus-money odds at DraftKings for just a half-point higher total.

–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)

Darren Grainger Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia State’s mobile quarterback Darren Grainger is set up for a strong game running the football against a Utah State defense that has been gashed on the ground all season. The Aggies have surrendered an average of 208 rushing yards per game, which ranks 128th out of 133 FBS teams.

Utah State ranked 34th in the nation in pass defense, so this is clearly a situation where the Panthers should want to run with frequency. Normally, this would be a spot for Marcus Carroll to absolutely erupt. But as one of the top rushers in FBS, the Panthers’ lead back has announced his transfer to Missouri, leaving the backfield situation more murky entering the bowl game.

My prediction is for Grainger to take matters into his own hands and run freely in this exhibition against a defense that is predisposed to giving up big chunks on the ground. Although he’s only cleared this rushing total five times on the season, we should see a different dynamic from this offense in the absence of their top running back

The odds differential between FanDuel (-114) and DraftKings (-115) is negligible, so either spot is an acceptable location for this prop.

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

Zac Larrier Under 47.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dukes haven’t seen a rushing attack like the Falcons’ this season. That doesn’t take away from the fact that they have the best rush defense in all of college football. They’re allowing just 61.5 rushing yards per game, and though they’re about to face an offense averaging 266.8 yards on the ground per contest, the Dukes have the advantage.

To beat the Dukes, you need to throw the football. They rank in the bottom five in the NCAA in passing yards allowed. But Larrier doesn’t throw well. If the Falcons fall behind, then Larrier will have to drop, which could be disastrous against a defense averaging 3.7 sacks per game, tied for the second-most in the country.

Larrier hasn’t played since Nov. 11. In his last four appearances, he’s run for 45 or fewer yards in each game. Though he will carry the ball often, he’s not the focal point of this offense. And at this point, the Dukes’ defense is just too good.

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

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