Michigan vs. Ohio State Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 14

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 25, 2024 7:30 AM EST • 3 min 27 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) celebrates a tackle by defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) as we offer our Michigan vs. Ohio State early picks, predictions, and odds for Week 14. — Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) celebrates a tackle by defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44). Photo by Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Images.

The Ohio State Buckeyes look to clinch their spot in the Big Ten Championship with a win Saturday at noon (FOX) in “The Game” over the Michigan Wolverines.

Ohio State is favored by 20.5 points to beat Michigan across our best sportsbooks
Michigan leads the all-time series against Ohio State (61-51-6) and has won each of the last three head-to-head matchups
This is the biggest point spread in this rivalry since Ohio State was a 21-point favorite over Michigan in 2014 (it failed to cover in a 42-28 victory)

Our Michigan vs. Ohio State predictions and odds find the most value in the total, expecting a low-scoring game to buck the streak of Overs in this head-to-head rivalry.

My early Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction: Under 44.5

College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 44.5

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Ohio State is coming off a dominant defensive performance against Indiana, holding the Hoosiers without a point on eight consecutive drives after their opening-drive touchdown.

The Buckeyes forced four three-and-outs in that span and held Indiana to 151 total yards - the fourth-fewest allowed to an AP top-five opponent in the last 20 seasons.

While Ohio State scored 38 points last week, its special teams contributed heavily to that total. The Buckeyes had a punt return for a touchdown; a seven-yard touchdown drive set up by a blocked punt; and a late three-play, 40-yard scoring drive after a Hoosiers' onside kick failed.

Michigan ranks 14th in special teams SP+, so it should not give Ohio State as many short fields as Indiana did.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Michigan vs. Ohio State live odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 14 game.

Moneyline

Ohio State best odds: -1667 via Caesars | Implied probability: 94.34%
Michigan best odds: +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%

Two of Michigan’s three consecutive wins in this series came as underdogs of 6.5 and 9.5 points, including a 45-23 win in its last appearance at “The Horseshoe” in 2022.

However, both of those Wolverines teams made the College Football Playoff, while this year’s squad needed a win in its previous game to improve to 6-5 and earn bowl eligibility.

At these odds, it would not be shocking to find more moneyline tickets written on Michigan than Ohio State. But I am in agreement with Ohio State’s 94% implied probability to win given the talent disparity between these teams.

Spread

Ohio State best odds: -20.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Michigan best odds: +20.5 (-110) via BetMGM

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with a point spread of -20.5 and -110 juice. The interesting thing is that at DraftKings, the lookahead line last week was Ohio State -22.

Michigan is coming off its biggest win of the season in a 50-6 home romp over Northwestern. But it is surprising the line would open below the key number of -21 given that Ohio State covered a 10.5-point spread easily in its 38-15 win over a previously unbeaten top-five opponent.

It would take a lot of momentum on the Buckeyes for this line to reach the key number of -21, but it is more likely the line ends up there than at -20 or lower.

Over/Under

Over best odds: 43.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Under best odds: 44.5 (-110) via DraftKings

DraftKings is alone as the only one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U a full-point higher than its competitors at 44.5.

Perhaps DraftKings was expecting early Over money, given that the Over has cashed in each of the previous 10 meetings between these teams.

There have been 44-plus points scored in each of the last 13 games in this rivalry, and the winning team has scored 40 or more points in eight of the previous 12.

Barring any drastic change in the forecast with higher wind gusts or a higher likelihood of rain, these trends suggest that the other best live betting sites will join DraftKings with an O/U of 44.5 or higher and not the other way around.

How to watch Michigan vs. Ohio State

When: Saturday, Nov. 30
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 30 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph W
Favorite: Ohio State -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”