College Football Playoff Odds 2024-25: Indiana Biggest Favorite of Teams Left on the Board
Heading into the final week of the regular season, the College Football Playoff odds have pulled the five biggest favorites off the board.
With Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, and Penn State no longer available to bet on, Indiana is the biggest favorite by the College Football Playoff odds. Despite the Hoosiers' loss to the Buckeyes in Week 13, Indiana's odds shortened from -450 to -2000 thanks to multiple SEC teams choking.
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, and Penn State are the safest plays for your College Football Playoff bracket predictions, but who else could get in?
College Football Playoff odds 2024-25
Live college Football Playoff odds from our best sports betting apps.
- Heading into Week 13, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, and Penn State all had odds of -1600 or shorter to make the CFP - all five programs have had their odds pulled
- While the Hoosiers couldn't upset college football championship odds favorite Ohio State, losses by Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M shortened Indiana's College Football Playoff odds
- The Fighting Irish are the highest-ranked team in the AP Top 25 to still be on the oddsboard (No. 5) after they crushed Army, 49-14
- The Volunteers got lucky with all the losses in the SEC leading to their odds shortening from -160 to -500 at our college football betting sites
- Led by Heisman Trophy odds contender Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos still have the shortest College Football Playoff odds in the Group of Five
College Football Playoff favorite 2024-25
Indiana (-2000)
After two weeks of debate around whether Indiana really deserved to make the College Football Playoff over a two-loss SEC team if it lost to Ohio State, it was all for nothing.
Thanks to Alabama losing to Oklahoma, Ole Miss falling to Florida, and Texas A&M being upset by Auburn, Indiana just needs to beat Purdue and the Hoosiers are in. There's absolutely no way an 11-1 Big Ten team would be left out of the CFP, especially when its one loss came at the hands of the championship favorite.
And for what it's worth, Indiana has legit NFL talent on both sides of the ball with players like Kurtis Rourke, Mikail Kamara, and D'Angelo Ponds. So there's no reason to argue that this team doesn't have playoff talent.
While strength of schedule will likely continue to be an annoying talking point from those pushing an SEC agenda, the Hoosiers have handled business against 10 of the 11 teams they've played this year. And they gave Ohio State a heck of a fight in the first half.
Even head coach Curt Cignetti couldn't believe the Hoosiers' playoff chances would be in doubt following the 38-15 loss to the Buckeyes.
"Is that a serious question?" Cignetti asked. "I'm not even gonna answer that one. The answer's so obvious."
And I agree with Cignetti - there's just no way Indiana won't get in as long as it beats Purdue in Week 14. The Boilermakers are the worst team in the Big Ten.
That's why $10 winning bet on the Hoosiers to make the CFP only pays a $0.50 profit.
Best odds: -2000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 95.24%
College Football Playoff odds: Group of Five favorite
Boise State (-300)
One Group of Five team is guaranteed a playoff spot with the five highest-ranked conference champions making the College Football Playoff. But that's all dependent on which G5 conference champ the CFP committee ranks highest.
It's safe to assume Boise State would be the pick if the College Football Playoff were today. The Broncos are the highest-ranked G5 team in the CFP rankings (12th) and the AP Top 25 (11th), plus they boast a Heisman contender in Jeanty.
The Broncos went toe-to-toe with Oregon and lost 37-34 thanks to the Ducks nailing a walk-off field goal. Boise State also beat the brakes off previously ranked Washington State in a 45-24 win in Week 5 to add a high-quality non-conference win to its resume.
And with the Broncos' 29-24 road win over UNLV in Week 9 - their biggest competition in the Mountain West - they're in position to win out. They might even earn a first-round bye over the Big 12 winner.
At this point, I think Boise State and the winner of Tulane vs. Army in the AAC Championship are the only teams with a shot here. And the Broncos boast a cheat code with Jeanty, so I'd take them with a $10 winning bet paying a $3.33 profit.
Best odds: -300 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 75%
My College Football Playoff team to watch
BYU (+320)
We're at the point in the season where it's becoming nearly impossible to find teams with a legit College Football Playoff chance that are still even or plus-money. Five weeks ago I had Indiana here at +110; the Hoosiers are now as short as -2200.
I then had SMU here for the last few weeks while the Mustangs' price jumped between +150 and +108. However, SMU is now as short as -180 to make the CFP thanks to several SEC programs choking.
Luckily, the Big 12 is a complete mess with nine teams still alive to make the conference championship game. That means whichever team you think will win the conference is the best team to bet at plus money odds to make the CFP.
Arizona State (+134), BYU, Colorado (+650), and Iowa State (+260) are currently in a four-team tie, making one of them the best bet. If all four win their final games, Arizona State will face Iowa State for the conference title.
However, I don't think the Cyclones are going to beat Kansas State - the Wildcats are actually the highest-rated Big 12 team by SP+ (16th). So if Iowa State loses, that gives us an Arizona State vs. BYU rematch for the Big 12 Championship.
Obviously the Sun Devils just beat the Cougars 28-23 after a wild ending to the game that included the goal posts being pulled down and then put back up for one final play. But that was in Tempe.
In a rematch at a neutral site (AT&T Stadium in Arlington), the Cougars are projected to win 28-25. So if BYU beats Houston in Week 14, and Iowa State loses to Kansas State, it sets the Cougars up for revenge against the Sun Devils.
If BYU can pull it off, a $10 bet pays a $32 profit.
Best odds: +320 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 23.81%
My College Football Playoff team to fade
Alabama (+180)
It doesn't make sense that so many SEC teams have odds shorter than +400 to make the College Football Playoff.
While Texas and Georgia have both had their odds pulled, Tennessee (-300), Alabama (+180), South Carolina (+310), and Ole Miss (+360) all have odds implying a 21.74% probability or better that they'll get in.
However, the selection committee is going to need a lot of things to transpire if they plan on getting more than three SEC teams into the College Football Playoff.
There are only seven at-large bids and the Big Ten is pretty much guaranteed three of them with Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State having their odds pulled and Indiana being the biggest favorite left.
As long as Notre Dame beats USC, the Fighting Irish will be in. Plus, Miami and SMU will likely face off in the ACC Championship, and the loser will still be in good shape to get into the playoff - or Clemson could get in over the loser if it beats South Carolina.
That's five at-large bids gone with the final two going to the SEC. Assuming Texas beats Texas A&M, one at-large bid will go to the loser of Georgia vs. Texas in the SEC Championship and the other will go to Tennessee, as long as it doesn't lose to Vanderbilt.
So a three-loss SEC team getting in is going to take a lot more than Greg Sankey whining about how much deeper his conference is than everyone else's this season. Alabama is 4-3 since October, and putting the Crimson Tide in would be a joke.
At bet365, you can bet on specific teams not making the CFP. The Crimson Tide's odds to miss the CFP (-250) pay a $4 profit on a $10 winning bet.
Terms and conditions apply.
How the College Football Playoff bracket would look today
Seeding based on the College Football Playoff rankings, which release weekly until the final rankings on Sunday, Dec. 8.
| Seed | Team | Record | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | 11-0 | Big Ten Champion |
| 2 | Texas | 9-1 | SEC Champion |
| 3 | Miami | 9-1 | ACC Champion |
| 4 | Boise State | 9-1 | Highest-ranked G5 champion |
| 5 | Ohio State | 9-1 | At-large |
| 6 | Penn State | 9-1 | At-large |
| 7 | Indiana | 10-0 | At-large |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 9-1 | At-large |
| 9 | Alabama | 8-2 | At-large |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 8-2 | At-large |
| 11 | Georgia | 8-2 | At-large |
| 12 | BYU | 9-1 | Big 12 Champion |
College Football Playoff first-round matchups if the CFP was today
| Matchup | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|
| No. 12 BYU vs. No. 5 Ohio State | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) |
| No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 6 Penn State | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.) |
| No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 7 Indiana | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Ind.) |
| No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Notre Dame | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.) |
The third College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, Nov. 19 for the new College Football Playoff bracket, and the selection committee will continue to update the rankings weekly until the final rankings are revealed on Sunday, Dec. 8.
With Oregon, Texas, Miami, and Boise State being the highest-ranked teams in their respective conferences, they would earn a bye if the CFP was today. And with the Broncos being ranked higher than any Big 12 team, that means a G5 program is positioned to earn a bye.
BYU gets in as the lowest-seeded team thanks to being the highest-ranked Big 12 squad. And there's even a possibility the Big 12 will be left out of the CFP altogether if the committee opts to put the AAC Champion (Army or Tulane) in over the Big 12 champ.
Thanks to Ohio State's win over Penn State, the Buckeyes remain the highest at-large seed while Penn State, Indiana, and Notre Dame would be slated to host the other first-round games.
The at-large bids are made up of three SEC schools, three Big Ten programs, and Notre Dame. With the Fighting Irish back in the picture, it appears the Big 12 and ACC might each miss out on receiving a second bid.
Remember, expansion essentially happened to put more SEC and Big Ten teams into the playoff.
College Football Playoff odds over time
Odds via DraftKings
| Team | Opening odds (April 29) | Oct. 7 | Nov. 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | -600 | -450 | OFF |
| Ohio State | -600 | -1600 | OFF |
| Texas | -250 | -1000 | OFF |
| Oregon | -200 | -700 | OFF |
| Notre Dame | -165 | -150 | -650 |
| Penn State | -130 | -300 | OFF |
| Ole Miss | -130 | -120 | +360 |
| Michigan | -120 | +4000 | OFF |
| LSU | -110 | +220 | OFF |
| Alabama | +100 | -600 | +180 |
| Florida State | +140 | +50000 | OFF |
| Tennessee | +170 | +100 | -500 |
| Missouri | +175 | +500 | +1500 |
| Clemson | +190 | -110 | +200 |
| Miami | +220 | -300 | -240 |
| Utah | +220 | +220 | OFF |
| Texas A&M | +220 | +150 | +800 |
| Kansas State | +250 | +200 | +15000 |
| USC | +400 | +1500 | OFF |
| Liberty | +400 | +500 | OFF |
CFP National Championship odds history
| Year | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan | +800 |
| 2023 | Georgia | +350 |
| 2022 | Georgia | +600 |
| 2021 | Alabama | +300 |
| 2020 | LSU | +2500 |
| 2019 | Clemson | +400 |
| 2018 | Alabama | +250 |
| 2017 | Clemson | +700 |
| 2016 | Alabama | +700 |
| 2015 | Ohio State | +4000 |
How to bet on the College Football Playoff
Betting on College Football Playoff odds is pretty straightforward. Check out the odds for different teams; for example, if Alabama is at +300 and Ohio State is at +600, Alabama is favored to make it to the playoffs.
Decide how much you want to wager and place your bet. If you bet $100 on Alabama at +300 and it makes it, you’ll get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake).
Keep an eye on the teams' performances throughout the season to see how your bet is shaping up.
Remember, with future markets, odds can see plenty of movement. It's all about performance and perception.
If a team performs better or worse than expected, its odds will change. Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances and, consequently, their odds. New player acquisitions or losses, coaching changes, and team dynamics can also affect odds. Public betting trends matter too; if a lot of people are betting on one team, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to manage their risk.
Expert analysis and predictions can also sway public opinion and betting patterns. Understanding these factors helps you make smarter bets and potentially catch some favorable odds shifts.
How to read College Football Playoff odds
Odds are typically shown in formats like +300 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +300) show how much profit you'd make on a $100 bet.
For instance, a $100 bet at +300 odds would win you $300, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $400. Negative odds (e.g., -150) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would win you $100, plus your $150 stake, totaling $250.
These odds reflect the implied probability of a team making the playoffs. Lower odds (e.g., +200) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +1000) indicate a lower likelihood. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on various factors like team performance, injuries, coaching changes, and public betting patterns.
For example, if Alabama has +300 odds and Ohio State has +600 odds, Alabama is considered more likely to make the playoffs. If you bet $100 on Alabama and they make it, you’d get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake).
College Football Playoff FAQs
Who is the favorite to make the College Football Playoff?
Indiana has the shortest odds to make the 2025 College Football Playoff of the teams still on the board. The Hoosiers' shortest odds are -2200, implying a 95.65% probability they will make the playoff, according to our odds calculator.
Who are the top four in the College Football Playoff?
The top four seeds, and first-round byes, go to the highest-ranked conference champions. If the College Football Playoff were today, the top four seeds would go to Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC), and BYU (Big 12).
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
Previously only four teams were selected for the College Football Playoff, but this season the playoff will expand to 12 teams. The top five ranked conference champions will be automatic qualifiers for the playoff along with seven at-large teams, decided by the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye in the playoff.
Who made the College Football Playoff last year?
Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama were chosen for the College Football Playoff by the selection committee last season.
When does the College Football Playoff start?
The 2025 College Football Playoff starts with the first round on Dec. 20 and 21, with games being played at the campus of the higher seed. The quarterfinals will then be played across the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The semifinals take place Jan. 9 and 10 at the Orange and Cotton Bowl before the CFP National Championship game on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
College football odds pages
| CFP National Championship Odds | SEC Odds | Big 12 Odds | Bowl Season Odds & Info |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | Big Ten Odds | Pac-12 Odds | |
| College Football Playoff Odds | Mountain West Odds | ACC Odds |
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