Heisman Trophy Dark-Horse Candidates: Who are the Best Sleeper Bets for 2024?
Despite not being a professional sport, college football is home to the most prestigious individual award in sports: the Heisman Trophy.
Winning a Heisman makes you a household name in many parts of the country and sets you up to be relevant for the rest of your life. But for an award that memorializes you for eternity, it's awarded to the Heisman Trophy odds favorite about as often as it ends up with a dark-horse candidate. That's what makes the award so special.
Sometimes, it goes to the quarterback who was born to win it (Caleb Williams, Bryce Young). Other times, it's a player oozing with talent who's finally with the right program (Cam Newton, Kyler Murray). And, on those rare occasions, a player whom nobody expected to matter can turn in one of the most dominant seasons in college football history (Joe Burrow, Johnny Manziel).
Since 2010, six of the 14 Heisman winners had preseason odds of +2500 or longer. Three were such big long shots that they weren't even on the oddsboard: Johnny Manziel (2012) and Jameis Winston (2013) were the first freshmen to ever win the award, and Cam Newton (2010) was fresh off a season at Blinn College before transferring to Auburn.
Just because there's 10 great candidates doesn't mean another player (usually a quarterback) won't emerge and take the award. Heck, the Heisman winner doesn't even necessarily have to play for a college football championship odds contender.
That's what makes betting into this market so interesting and why, using recent history, we can find this year's best dark-horse Heisman Trophy candidates to back.
Long shots to win the Heisman Trophy (+2500 preseason odds or longer)
| Year | Heisman winner | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | DeVonta Smith | +10000 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow | +4000 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | +3000 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | +10000 |
| 2015 | Derrick Henry | +2500 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | OFF |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | OFF |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | +2800 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | OFF |
Best 2024 Heisman Trophy long shots to bet
Avery Johnson (+2500)
This one is all about riding the hype wave. A year ago, the Kansas State quarterback wasn't even the most famous Avery Johnson in sports; by the end of this season, he could be one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country.
The 19-year-old is entering his true sophomore season and riding the momentum of the Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP - the second-most prestigious award in sports after the Heisman. He's a former Elite 11 finalist who opted to stay in his home state and play for the Wildcats over scholarship offers from Oregon, Washington, Auburn, and Florida State.
Rumor is that part of the reason Will Howard - who's +1500 to win the Heisman - decided to hit the transfer portal and head to Ohio State is because Johnson is that talented.
Obviously, backing a quarterback who has just 66 career passes is a bold move, but he's been creating a ton of buzz in Manhattan and his running ability really popped as a freshman. In limited action last year, he totalled 12 touchdowns with seven coming on the ground.
His lone start was in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against NC State, and he ended up with 178 passing yards, 71 rushing yards, and three total scores. It's not as if we've never seen a second-year QB win the Heisman in his first year as a starter; Manziel did just that.
Just like Manziel and reigning winner Jayden Daniels, Johnson has the potential to be a game-changer as a runner. That should come in handy against Arizona in a prime-time game on FOX on Sept. 13 - and it never hurts to have a game with a lot of eyes on it early in the season.
With the second-shortest Big 12 Championship odds, the Wildcats have a shot at the College Football Playoff, too, which will only help Johnson's case. If he does take home the Heisman, a $10 bet pays a $250 profit.
And if you're doubting if a Kansas State QB can compete for the Heisman, don't forget Collin Klein was a finalist the year Manziel won in 2012.
Best odds: +2500 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.85%
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Conner Weigman (+3000)
Similarly to Johnson, betting on Weigman is all about potential of what he could be this season. And, funny enough, Klein is his new offensive coordinator at Texas A&M after the former Heisman finalist spent the last two years as Kansas State's OC.
With Klein being hired by new head coach Mike Elko, the Aggies figure to run a more modern offense than what Jimbo Fisher was running during Weigman's first two seasons on campus.
While Weigman has yet to live up to his five-star billing, the 21-year-old is now a redshirt sophomore and shown enough in a handful of starts that The Athletic's Dane Brugler ranked him as his fourth-best QB in the 2025 NFL Draft class heading into the season.
It's important to remember how 2025 NFL Draft projections can help and hurt your college football bets. When it comes to the Heisman, it helps to be a legit QB prospect - the last six passers to win the award were top-two picks in the NFL draft.
To be drafted that high (and win the Heisman), Weigman needs to stay on the field. Part of the reason his odds are longer than less talented quarterbacks is because he only lasted four starts before going down with an injury last season.
However, when he's been on the field, it's been impressive. It's easy to see why he was a blue-chip recruit with his arm talent and ability to navigate a muddy pocket. In just a handful of starts the last two seasons, Weigman has thrown 16 touchdowns to only two interceptions.
While he doesn't technically qualify because he didn't play enough games, he did have an adjusted completion rate of 78.4% last season, per PFF. That would have ranked 13th in the country had he kept it up all year.
That would put him in the same area as Bo Nix, Carson Beck, J.J. McCarthy, Daniels, and Dillon Gabriel. Not bad company to keep.
He should be able to shine even with the coaching changes this year thanks to Elko being able to retain so much of the talent on the roster. The Aggies rank 22nd in offensive returning production and return multiple NFL talents on the offensive line and among pass-catchers.
A $10 winning bet on Weigman pays a $300 profit.
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 3.23%
Luther Burden (+8000)
Alright, I know what you're thinking ... this is a quarterback's award. You're correct, and betting on a wide receiver to win Heisman is like betting on the Buffalo Bills or Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl - it's never going to happen.
Except unlike Atlanta or Buffalo hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, a wide receiver has won the award. And sure, it happened during the strange pandemic season, but former Alabama wideout DeVonta Smith was clearly the best player in the country that year.
It's also not a bad season to bet a non-QB given there's not necessarily a surefire stat-stuffing passer atop the oddsboard. Beck is the best quarterback in the country for a Georgia team that isn't known for being pass-happy, and Gabriel is the favorite but enters his first season with a new team (Oregon) in a new conference (Big Ten).
So if you're feeling spicy and want to back a non-QB to be this year's Smith or Derrick Henry, then Burden is your best bet.
Why Burden over Ollie Gordon at Oklahoma State, Tetairoa McMillan at Arizona, or Travis Hunter at Colorado? Well, Burden plays in the toughest conference in the country for an offense that ranks 16th in returning production and a team that has a legit shot to be a College Football Playoff odds contender.
It also helps that head coach Eli Drinkwitz, offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, and QB Brady Cook are all back in 2024. That crew helped Burden - the biggest recruit in program history - put up 1,212 receiving yards and nine scores on 86 receptions as a true sophomore. He was also fourth in the country in YAC per reception (8.4) and sixth in yards per route run (3.29).
Burden is one of the most explosive playmakers in the country and viewed as a potential top-15 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. A huge year could certainly put him in the Heisman conversation, and if he wins, a $10 bet pays an $800 profit.
Best odds: +8000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.23%
Kyron Drones (+10000)
If I keep it up, Virginia Tech isn't going to be considered a sleeper by the time the season starts. With the Hokies sitting sixth in the ACC Championship odds, they're still a dark horse to win the conference and fight for a spot in the CFP.
If they're going to do that, they'll need Drones to continue to improve behind center in his second season with the program. We've seen someone transfer from one Power Four conference to another and turn in a solid season before exploding the next year, and while I'm not saying Drones is Burrow, the Baylor transfer had really bright moments last year.
As a redshirt sophomore last season, Drones helped Brent Pry's program post a 7-6 record after it had won just three games in his first year. The 6-foot-2, 234-pound Drones frequently showcased his arm talent and physical running ability that drew comparisons to former Heisman runner-up Jalen Hurts.
In 13 games, he ended up throwing for just over 2,000 yards with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He also added 818 on the ground and five more scores. To win the Heisman, he'll likely need to double those touchdown numbers and have the Hokies in the CFP conversation.
Luckily, Virginia Tech ranks first in returning offensive production with several NFL level players around him on offense. All three of his top receivers (Da'Quan Felton, Jaylin Lane, and Ali Jennings) could be NFL draft picks, and same goes for running back Bhayshul Tuten.
While his passing definitely needs to improve, he still managed a 72.7% adjusted completion rate with 13 big-time throws last season. More importantly, though, he was a terror on the ground with the sixth-most rushing yards among QBs in the country with the third-most after contact (569) and the fifth-most 10-plus-yard runs (33).
With so much of this offense back, Drones is due to improve through the air and already has the rushing element to his game that's been huge for recent Heisman winners. A $10 winning bet on Drones pays a $1,000 profit.
Best odds: +10000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.99%
Alex Orji (+10000)
This is the biggest dart throw on the list, but if you look at most Heisman winners with long preseason odds, they come from blue-blood programs. And who has bluer blood that Michigan?
The reigning national champs have to replace most of the recognizable faces from their title team, including McCarthy. Losing a first-round quarterback to the NFL along with your head coach is generally difficult to replace, especially when you don't have Connor Stalions to steal signals anymore. (Too soon?)
But fear not, Michigan faithful, you have a complete monster of an athlete waiting to be named QB1 for the maize and blue. At 6-foot-3, 238 pounds, Orji looks like he could play any position on the field with his size and athleticism.
The redshirt sophomore is expected to be named Michigan's starting QB for new head coach Sherrone Moore, who spent the last several seasons as Jim Harbaugh's offensive coordinator and O-line coach.
To be honest, we have no idea if Orji will be good. He was only a three-star recruit out of Texas and has thrown one pass in two seasons with the Wolverines. You might remember him from last season when he occasionally came in to run wildcat - it resulted in just 86 rushing yards and a score for him on the season.
So why should we feel positively about a QB at a program with a new head coach that is dealing with an NCAA investigation and ranks 128th in returning production? Well, Orji's a certified freak. He came in at 13th on Bruce Feldman's annual Freaks List and reportedly has a 41-inch vertical.
That alone makes me think he'll be scaring Big Ten defenses with his legs. Can he throw? No idea. But Michigan has been as good as any program in the country at developing talent, and the Wolverines sit fourth by the Big Ten Championship odds despite all their losses for a reason.
Moore is as good an offensive line coach as there is, and Michigan has a devastating defense that should keep this team in the playoff hunt. If Orji can hit the ground running, the buzz will build quickly, especially with how physically comparable he is to Newton.
A $10 winning bet on Orji pays a $1,000 profit.
Best odds: +10000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.99%
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