Trump's Tariff War a Factor in the Conservative Party's Falling Odds to Win the Canadian Election

The April 28 Canadian federal election has become a saga, with the formerly leading Conservative Party trailing in opinion polls. One major cause of the party's turnabout is the intensifying economic war between U.S. President Donald Trump and Canada.

President Trump's threatened levies have provoked a wave of Canadian nationalism that now benefits the ruling Liberal Party under new leader Mark Carney. As a result, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who was running well and had broad momentum when he entered the race, has seen his standing erode in the face of a rapidly shifting political environment.

Only a few months ago, a Nanos poll had the Conservatives leading the Liberals by a wide margin, 47% to 20%. The new Nanos poll, conducted over three days from April 17 to April 20, reports a dramatic turnaround, with the Liberals leading the Conservatives by eight points. This is something that has been reflected in the odds at the top political betting sites in Canada.

Additionally, the Canadian Conservative Party was favored among bettors, with Justin Trudeau’s departure shaking up gambling markets. Prediction platform PolyMarket had Poilievre winning the next election at 89%, but this has since dropped to 19% as of April 23.

President Trump’s remarks regarding trade and Canada as the 51st state have angered Canadian voters from both sides of the political aisle and increased tensions over national sovereignty. This has diverted the course of the election from economic issues at home to leadership abroad.

Poilievre's identification with President Trump's politics has come to be widely seen as a weakness. Whereas the leader of the Conservatives had tried to catch the mood of public opinion by co-opting slogans like "Canada First" and a speech like President Trump's about taking on the elites, such tactics now appear to be turning back against him.

Poilievre's position turned against him

The stylistic similarities between President Trump and others have been the subject of political debate. Kory Teneycke, a seasoned conservative strategist and campaign organizer, panned Poilievre's style as too much like that of the U.S. president, calling it "a cheap karaoke version of Trump."

Trudeau’s successor, Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has brought a more technocratic and internationally seasoned presence to Liberal leadership. Carney frames the Liberals as the party best positioned to navigate Canada through an era of turmoil in U.S.-Canada relations.

The center of the election has also moved. What was initially a Liberal government referendum with Trudeau has turned into a matter of who is best suited to defend Canada's interests in the increasingly rotten global environment. Bettors seem to side with the Liberal Party, the favorites by the Canadian Election odds across our best Ontario sports betting apps.

Unless the Conservative campaign can reimpose the agenda of the election or fundamentally change public opinion over the last ten days before people vote, prospects for the party to be restored to office seem to be fading, as odds show them now falling behind with a 27% probability to win the upcoming election.