Is Patrick Mahomes the GOAT – Or Just a Lucky Duck?

Love him or hate him, Patrick Mahomes has solidified himself as one of the NFL’s brightest stars with an already impressive resume that includes multiple MVP awards, more Super Bowl wins than all but three quarterbacks in NFL history, and, who could forget, more State Farm commercials than anyone asked for. And still – his place and trajectory within football's pantheon remain hotly debated talking points. 

Why? A stark divide between Chiefs fans and pretty much every other fan base when it comes to assessing Mahomes’ legacy, which is perhaps being tainted by the perception of favorable treatment from the league.

Still, the unprecedented chance to three-peat as a Super Bowl champion has to at least put him in the GOAT conversation, doesn't it? For the uninitiated, GOAT stands for greatest of all time, a title regularly bestowed upon Tom Brady, much to the chagrin of Manning, Montana, and even Brees fans.

In the name of putting a lid on this conversation, we asked fans of every NFL team how they feel about Mahomes’ chances of ever legitimately wearing the fan-coveted GOAT crown.

Key Findings

• The differential between Chiefs fans and fans of every other NFL team believing that Mahomes will ever be the GOAT is a whopping 81%.

• A massive 74% of people either believe the outcomes of Chiefs games are manipulated or are unsure if there’s any funny business going on.

• Non-Chiefs fans say they don’t think Mahomes will ever be the GOAT because he’s given advantages by the officials and is largely carried by his team.

Chiefs Fans vs. The World

Among Kansas City Chiefs fans, the consensus is nearly unanimous: 81% believe Mahomes is or will soon become the GOAT. By contrast, only 14% of non-Chiefs fans share this sentiment, with 78% saying the outright opposite. We all know fandom heavily influences perceptions of greatness, but in the case of Mahomes, it’s also about how penalties (or the lack of them) do the same.

For those outside the Chiefs’ fandom, reasons for not considering Mahomes a potential GOAT quarterback range from a belief in preferential treatment by officials (nearly a third of football fans at 31%) and accusations of being carried by a strong defense built by football savant and self-described food politician Andy Reid (17%). A combined 39% question his playing style, lack of competition, and even his attitude (notably, his tantrum during the game vs. the Bills late last season), but only 4% believe he should be left out of the conversation because of his affiliation with Taylor Swift.

A look at favorability among fans of every NFL team reveals considerable disdain for Mahomes league-wide. This stands in stark contrast to the almost universal love he sees from Chiefs fans.

Off-Field Popularity and Fairness Concerns

Mahomes’ off-field popularity further highlights the divide among NFL fans, as only 7% of Chiefs fans believe his celebrity status affects their opinion of him, while among other NFL fans, 21% acknowledge that Mahomes’ off-field persona, highly publicized connections, and endorsements impact their perspective.

A deeper look into the quality of calls made when Mahomes is on the field reveals that while only 11% of Chiefs fans believe Mahomes receives beneficial treatment from officials, 91% of non-Chiefs fans say he does. This perception drives skepticism about the legitimacy of Mahomes’ accomplishments, with 44% of non-Chiefs fans believing the outcomes of big games involving the Chiefs are rigged, predetermined or influenced by the NFL.

Specific reasons for perceived favoritism vary, but they all can be stripped down to one thing: money. Some fans (35%) believe the NFL promotes Mahomes and the Chiefs to amplify their connection to Taylor Swift and attract atypical audiences, some believe it is to build a new dynasty to sustain fan interest after Brady’s retirement (12%), and many don’t sugarcoat it, saying they believe it’s directly for media engagement and profits (11%). In short, winning = more media engagement = more fans = more money.

None of this is to say that what Mahomes has accomplished is not admirable or won’t continue to grow and his legacy won’t be cemented as one of the best to ever do it. It’s just worth noting that millions of NFL fans believe he’s had some unfair advantages helping him do so.

The Polarization of Greatness

Mahomes’ polarizing status reflects a larger trend in sports: the intersection of exceptional talent, intense fandom, and media scrutiny. His statistical dominance and off-field charisma are undeniable, yet his rise coincides with a media landscape that amplifies narratives. Even when compared to other all-star quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, there are many valid arguments that would debate he’s a step behind in many aspects of the game.

Ultimately, though, greatness is as much about perception as it is about achievement. For Chiefs fans, Mahomes is the quarterback of their dreams: a generational talent who continues to prove he can actually bring it home. For others, skepticism stems from the broader media ecosystem surrounding him: officiating controversies, commercial and financial interests, and his outsized presence in football culture, and frankly a bit of "haterade". 

Let’s Not Get too Hasty

Other than Tom Brady and Mahomes, the only other quarterback with three Super Bowl championships before the age of 30 is Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman. Though certainly special, Aikman is virtually never in the GOAT conversation – nor is he even considered top ten all time by most. A lot can happen between 30 and 40. Downfalls, comebacks, heartbreaks, and heroics have been on the table for every great quarterback in the history of football. 

Patrick Mahomes has cemented himself as probably the greatest quarterback of his generation, but time will tell how his generation stacks up against the legends of Canton.

Methodology

In January 2025, we surveyed 1,480 NFL fans, comprised of 240 self-described Kansas City Chiefs fans, as well as 1,240 fans representing the fandom of the other 31 NFL franchises. The average age of our respondents was 35.2 years. 

Fair Use

You are welcome and encouraged to share this data with your audience. If you do so, please be sure to provide a citation in the form of linked attribution to this page so your readers can see the full report.