Search for the Next Pope Shows Close Race for Bettors

Following Pope Francis's death at the age of 88, after more than a decade as the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, speculation is intensifying over who will succeed him as the next pontiff. 

Pope Francis, elected in 2013, became known for his progressive stance on several key issues and his efforts to reform the Vatican bureaucracy. Now that the papal chair is vacant, bookmakers and Vatican analysts are scrutinizing potential candidates for the role of the 267th pope.

Unfortunately, American bettors looking up how to bet in this election might have to sit this one out, as our best sports betting sites and regulated U.S. sports betting platforms cannot accept money on the outcomes of religious events.

However, prediction market platforms like Kalshi fall outside of this regulation and can accept prediction exchanges on global real-time events. 

Who is leading the charge as the next Pope?

Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads the line on Sports Interaction at +200 and is generally regarded as a heavy favorite due to his extensive years of service at the Vatican. He has served as the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, a position most commonly compared to that of a prime minister in the Holy See. It has given him a leg up in the next Pope predictions.

Parolin, who was ordained in 1980 and later became a Vatican diplomat in countries such as Nigeria and Mexico, has been recognized for his diplomatic skills and intimate working relationship with Pope Francis. He is familiar with Vatican intrigue and global affairs, which qualifies him as a continuity candidate.

Second in the odds is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at +300. He's a prominent Filipino who has been frequently mentioned as a papabile in any conclave, even the recent one.

Tagle is now the Pro-Prefect for the Section of Evangelization in the Vatican's Dicastery for Evangelization, having been the Archbishop of Manila before. Tagle's pastoral approach and media-friendly demeanor make him a symbol of the growing influence of the global south in the Catholic Church, led by Asia, where the faith is expanding tremendously.

Ghana's Cardinal Peter Turkson, who has +700 odds, is another highly admired Vatican figure. He was the Prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, an office Pope Francis established that addresses issues such as justice, peace, and care for migrants.

Turkson has long been a vocal advocate of social justice and environmental stewardship. His election would be historic, as he would become the first African pope in over 1,500 years.

Alongside the same odds as Turkson is Archbishop Matteo Maria Zuppi of Bologna. Zuppi has been known for his intense devotion to peace mediation, particularly through his long-standing membership in the Sant'Egidio Community, a Catholic lay movement renowned for conflict resolution and humanitarian work.

Zuppi was created as a cardinal in 2019 and is noted for his pastoral approach and advocacy for inclusivity in the Church.

With the College of Cardinals ready to meet in conclave, no obvious front-runner has emerged, but the bookies suggest a closely fought contest.