Canadians Flock to the Polls as Record-Level Voting Begins

Elections Canada has reported that a record number of Canadians have voted early ahead of the country's federal election, with over 7.3 million early votes cast, with two million votes cast alone last Friday.

This boost marks a 25% rise compared to the advance voter turnout during the previous 2021 federal election. A quarter of registered voters have already cast their votes in person or by mail before Election Day on April 28. Mail-in votes have also increased significantly, with more than 754,000 returned, higher than the 660,000 postal votes received in 2021.

The record turnout comes during a tumultuous political environment influenced by economic pressure. An active trade war, involving U.S. President Donald Trump's re-imposition of tariffs, has heightened tensions between the nations and shaken the election outlook.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has made fighting Trump's trade policy one of the central themes of his election campaign. Campaigning around Prince Edward Island and Quebec during the last week before election day, he has positioned the Liberal Party as best positioned to advance Canada's economic interests.

Carney, who possesses 85% of the votes on the trading platform Polymarket, which previously had bettors voting on the possibility of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calling a general election before April, has openly criticized Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre for not having a detailed solution to the economic problems raised by the U.S. government.

Currently, the best political betting sites in Canada have the Liberal Party sitting atop the Canadian election odds.

Liberals take top spot from Conservatives

Surveys now have the Liberals leading the Conservatives by five points, a dramatic turnaround for the party after it had fallen sharply in popularity earlier this year. In January, the Liberals were at 20%, shortly before Trudeau resigned and Carney assumed leadership.

This bounce suggests that public opinion has shifted in favor of the opposition as the polls near, owing to Carney's economic credentials and hawkish views on trade policy. 

Poilievre, however, has centered his campaign on local issues, foremost among them being housing affordability, public safety, and inflation. Speaking to supporters at a rally in Vaughan, Ontario, Tuesday night, he called for a change in leadership after nearly a decade of Liberal rule.

The Conservative bid, which is a long +290 on FanDuel Ontario (one of the best Ontario sports betting apps) to take control, has accused the Liberals of overspending and being unwilling to reduce Canadian families' economic stresses.

Other parties are still in contention, though none are realistic competitors. The New Democratic Party (NDP), the left-leaning party, is third among the sportsbooks, with odds ranging from +3700 to +7500.

The Bloc Québécois (BQ), which only operates in Quebec and campaigns on provincial sovereignty, is currently lower in the polls.

However, these parties could still play significant roles in the event of a minority government scenario. With only a week left before Canadians complete voting, the electoral landscape is fluid and deals can alter the lines.